Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 29, 2024

Small movements overnight saw wheat easier, corn and soybeans firmer. The US dollar index strengthened a little following practically a week of weaker days; Crude, the Dow and the Aussie dollar all weakened.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down US9.5c/bu to 574.75c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 4.75c/bu to 581c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 6.25/bu to 656c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €3.50/t to €197.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 5c/bu to 428.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 4.5c/bu to 1145.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$0.10/t to $591/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 unchanged at €415/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$1.50/t to $330.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$1.30/t to $335/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 48 points to US$0.6496.

International

Houthi rebels have denied they have targeted critical underwater sea telecommunication cables. Concern is mounting that a Belize-flagged (British owned) bulk carrier may sink and cause an environmental disaster. It was struck by two missiles last week, is leaking oil, and is carrying 41,000t fertiliser. 

Ukraine Ag Ministry data shows February grain exports have exceeded last year’s level by almost 12pc, reaching 5.3Mt. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research increased its 2024-25 Ukraine wheat production forecast by 0.2Mt to 21.9Mt, reflecting recent favourable warm conditions and generally mild winter weather. Rapeseed production is unchanged at 3.7Mt. 

European Commission data shows that for week ending 18 Feb, cumulative all-wheat exports are at 21.3Mt (-2pc yoy), imports at 8Mt (+16pc). Barley exports are at 5.5Mt (-8pc), canola at 3.6Mt (-31pc), sunflowerseed at 0.4Mt (-76pc) and palm oil at 2.2Mt (-16pc). 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US biomass-based diesel and ethanol compliance credit prices have fallen to 3-year lows on declining feedstock costs and are set to stay low as renewable diesel output rises. Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated from renewable diesel and biodiesel output (D4) and from ethanol production (D6) are both trading at their lowest since 2020. Declining prices of soybean oil are a primary driver behind the slump in RINs. The EIA said rising global production and lower demand in China have boosted soybean stockpiles, while increasing exports from Brazil have put more pressure on soyoil prices. 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association forecast 2024 palm oil production at 57.6Mt, up 5pc year on year, with exports at 32-33Mt, unchanged from previous year. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender for 120kt of milling wheat from optional origins. 

Algeria’s state grains agency seeks 80,000t feed maize and 35,000t soymeal from optional origins for Mar/Apr shipment. 

Taiwan’s MFIG seeks up to 65,000t feed maize sourced from Argentina, Brazil, South Africa or the US.

Australia

Local markets are becoming a bore, with grower selling pretty much at a standstill for wheat and barley as values continue to drift lower. ASX May 24 wheat ended the day down A$1.30/t yesterday at $335/t. The focus is now on sorghum in the north, with some very impressive looking crops expected to yield exceptionally well, with growers actively managing the threat of fall armyworm. 

Weekly rainfall totals of between 15-50mm have been received through parts of the WA cropping belt, with isolated pockets receiving between 50-100mm. After such a prolonged dry spell, combined with record high temps the relief has been welcome, but more rain is needed to make up for the moisture deficit. The 8-day outlook is building with totals of between 10-50mm expected through most cropping regions. There is also more rain on the way for southeast Qld and northeast NSW, with 10-25mm expected. All other regions are looking at less than 10mm.

 

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