Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 July 2024

Lachstock Consulting July 29, 2024

Soybeans and Winnipeg canola fell about 3 percent and the US wheat markets more than 2 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 down US14 cents per bushel to US548.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 16c/bu to 562c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 14.5c/bu to 607.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €2/t to €225.25/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 down 10.75c/bu to 410c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 31c/bu to 1048.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$25.20/t to C$646.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €13.25/t to €480.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat down $A3/t to $344/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303/t;
  • AUD dollar up 9 points to US$0.6547.

International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon lifted its forecast of the Russian wheat crop by another 500kt to 84.7 million tonnes (Mt), citing good yields in parts of the Volga region and Southern Russia, alongside further improved weather conditions in Siberia and the Urals. 

Ukraine’s Farm Ministry estimated that around 20Mt of grain had been harvested by 25 July, including 14.7Mt of wheat (average yield of 4.2t/ha), 3.87Mt of barley (yield of 3.79t/ha) and 3.08Mt of canola. State weather forecasters and producers reported there could be a 20-30pc decline in productivity of late crops in central, southern and eastern regions due to extreme heat. 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 22 Jul, the 2024-25 common wheat crop condition was rated 50pc good/excellent, down from 52pc last week (78pc previous year), durum 58pc (60pc, 67pc), spring barley 66pc (69pc, 73pc) and maize 82pc (81pc, 81pc). The 2024-25 common wheat harvest was 41pc complete (14pc previous week, 76pc previous year, 67pc avg), durum 67pc (45pc, 96pc, 92pc), winter barley 93pc (80pc, 99pc, 97pc) and spring barley 31pc (13pc, 85pc, 61pc). 

According to World Weather Inc, a high-pressure ridge will likely stay far enough to the west of the US Corn Belt this week to allow thunderstorm activity to move into the region and help suppress the heat. The ridge may shift more into the western Corn Belt during the second week of the outlook but will likely remain too far west for it to be much of a problem for the region. Rains are expected to continue across the Delta and Southeast during the next two weeks. 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending 22 July noted that extreme heat during a key phase of crop development will likely impact yield potential. Persistently high temperatures and lack of rainfall have impacted soil moisture ratings, but overall crop ratings are better than in previous seasons. Most crops were rated in fair to good condition, with the lowest ratings noted in the southwest, west central, and southeast. 

US private exporters reported the sale of 264kt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

In the west, Friday saw canola values regain most of Thursday’s losses. New crop was bid $820/t and GM canola bid at $755/t. Barley bids were up around $5/t for both new crop and nearby, at around $330/t and $320/t respectively. 

The east of Australia was a similar story with canola values up around +$5/t to be bid $756/t for new crop. Barley bids were generally steady, while wheat bids were down slightly on Friday. 

Southern Queensland and central/northern NSW picked up a perfectly timed 10-25mm rainfall over the weekend with totals of up to 50mm in some pockets. Most cropping regions of WA picked up 10-25mm for the week ending 28 July, while SA picked up less with 5-15mm. Some pockets jagged more. Rainfall was patchy in Victoria, receiving anywhere from 5-50mm, with the higher totals in the southwest and central/southeast.

A cabinet reshuffle will see Senator Murray Watt move from agriculture minister to take up  the old portfolio of Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke MP. Member for Franklin Julie Collins MP will become the new agriculture minister, moving back to the portfolio she held in opposition.

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