Daily Market Wire 29 June 2023

Lachstock Consulting, June 29, 2023

Corn led 5 percent lower and wheat continued its price slide. The US dollar index gained. Brent crude oil gained 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December down US 29.5 cents per bushel to 686.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December down 32.25c/bu to 808.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 26c/bu to 827.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €5/t to €239.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December down US$1/t to $244/t;
  • Corn September 2023 down 25c/bu to 531.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2023 down 29.25c/bu to 1265c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola contract down C$13.20/t to $700.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €3/t to €438/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$8/t to $396/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down $5/t to $322.50/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 86 points to US$0.6600.


Russia’s RIA news agency reports that the probability of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal remains high, although talks continue. Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would end the deal after the current extension expires on 17 July if its demands were not met. 

According to Ukrainian Grain Association 2023 wheat production may far exceed official expectations of 17Mt noting that “expected yields are quite high”. They estimate the crop could reach 23.5Mt to 24Mt. 

Hungary’s agriculture minister says the country’s government wants to extend the European Union’s ban on imports of certain agricultural products from Ukraine, including maize and sunflowers, to the end of 2023. However, Polish President Andrzej Duda expects that restrictions will be lifted as soon as possible to allow efficient trade and transit. Duda spoke at a joint press conference in Kyiv with Ukrainian and Lithuanian counterparts and expects mechanisms to be created to allow efficient trade and transit of Ukrainian food imports.

European Commission data shows 2022-23 EU soft-wheat exports at 30.8Mt as of June 25, compared with 27.7Mt in the previous marketing year. Major destinations include Morocco (4.68Mt), Algeria (4.08Mt) and Nigeria (2.78Mt). EU barley exports are at 6.34Mt (7.02Mt previous year) and corn imports are at 25.5Mt up from 16.3Mt in the previous year. 

Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crop Report notes that farmers reported planting up 6.7pc from 2022 at 10.9Mha (26.9 million acres) wheat in 2023, around 2pc greater than the trade expectation. Farmers reported planting 8.9Mha of canola in 2023, up 3.2pc from the previous year and 2pc greater than the previous estimate. Saskatchewan area was up 9pc from 2022, Alberta down 2pc and Manitoba down 5pc. 

Brazil’s vegetable oils industry association (ABIOVE) has revised up 2022-23 soybean production by 1Mt to 156.0Mt (129.9Mt previous year), with exports raised by 1.3Mt, to 97.0Mt (78.7Mt previous year).
Brazil grain exporters’ association ANEC has revised June soybean exports down 0.1Mt to 14.2Mt, soymeal exports also cut by 0.1Mt, to 2.3Mt. Maize shipments lowered by 0.3Mt, to 1.2Mt.


Local markets remained very quiet yesterday, with dribs and drabs of old crop being traded but nothing to bowl the stumps over. It is just a very slow market with a lot of sitting, waiting, wondering what direction it will take. 

Weekly rainfall totals have been impressive across southeast WA, SA and Vic with most areas receiving 15-50mm with some areas now too wet. Most cropping regions in NSW have seen 10-25mm although it has been patchy with the northwest missing out again and Qld was relatively dry. The forecast for next week has 15-50mm for northern NSW and Qld.
Rural Bank has pegged the 2023-24 Australian wheat crop at 28Mt, with Queensland at 1.2Mt, NSW at 8Mt (subject to further reduction if more hectares remain fallow in northern NSW). Victoria’s crop is forecast at just under 4Mt, SA at 4.7Mt and WA at 10Mt.


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