Markets

Daily market wire 29 March 2018

Lachstock Consulting, March 29, 2018

Overnight futures markets

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down -3.75c to 462.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down -3.5c to 480c,
  • Corn down -0.25c to 382.25c,
  • Soybean down -1.5c to 1028.75c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -0.80$C to 526.8$C,
  • Matif canola down -1.25€ to 346.25€.
  • The Dow Jones down -9.29 to 23848.42,
  • Crude Oil down -0.64c to $US64.61 per barrel,
  • AUD down to 0.766c,
  • CAD up to 1.292c, (AUDCAD 0.990)
  • EUR down to 1.230c (AUDEUR 0.622).

Wheat

Wheat continued its decline in a low-volume session, as the trade adjusts positions ahead of month-end and quarter-end results and tonight’s USDA prospective plantings report.

There is some moisture forecast for parts of the Hard Red Winter wheat belt, but not enough to prompt a significant yield turnaround.

Implied volatility in May Soft Red Winter wheat futures went out at 20 per cent.

Russian values remain quite stable, with old crop at US$208/t free on board (fob) and new crop at $198/t fob.

The export sales report will also be released tonight, with the trade expecting 300,000t of weekly exports for old crop.

Market ranges for wheat in the report are 1.45-1.64 billion bushels for stocks and 31.5-32.7 million acres on winter wheat, 10.9-11.94 million acres on spring wheat area.

Corn

Corn shared a similar price action to beans, trading a tight 3-cent range in a low volume session.

Any pre-report repositioning has been done, so the market awaits new data to trade.

Weather-wise things are okay in the US with patchy showers forecast over the corn belt for the next week.

Given the strong demand profile for old crop, there is strong pressure on expectations about new crop yield. Based on conservative acreage forecasts, the price risk remains to the upside, given those factors and the proximity to seasonal lows.

Weekly exports out tonight are expected at 1.35Mt. Market ranges for corn numbers are 8.550-8.881 billion bushels for stocks and area projection in the range 87.55-91 million acres.

Soybeans

Soybeans finished fractions lower, in a quiet session that featured a US8c/bu range.

Traded volumes were lower as the market awaited the USDA report that is out tonight.

Soymeal was down $1.10/t, while soyoil was down 4 points.

Weekly export sales in beans are out tonight and expected at 750,000t.

The ranges for trade estimates in tonight’s USDA report are 1.81-2.11 billion bushels on March 1 bean stocks and 89.9-92.6 million acres on bean area.

Canola

Canola followed price action in beans, settling fractions lower. It’s early days, but snow cover in Canada is preventing seeding and if that continues then the crop will go in late.  Late sowing should prompt some yield penalties and increase risk premiums.

Australia

Aussie markets were mixed yesterday, with the trade retreating somewhat ahead of the Easter break and the USDA report.

The 8-day forecast remains very dry which could prompt support in old crop, as growers are unlikely to sell physical whilst sowing into a parched moisture profile.

Sorghum prices remain firm with limited grower selling and export demand supporting things and also increasing the potential for a track squeeze at the end of April.

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