Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 March 2019

Lachstock Consulting, March 29, 2019

Wheat futures traded at least one per cent lower; Thursday’s settlements as follows;

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was up 0.25c to 469.5
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 1.25c to 444.5c
  • Corn May contract down 3.5c to 373.75
  • Soybeans May contract down 13.25c to 887.5c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract was down C$0.30 to C$451.40
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1.75/t to €358.25
  • Dow Jones down 32.14 points to 25,625.59
  • Crude oil May contract down $0.53 to 59.41
  • AUD down to 0.7080c,
  • CAD down to 1.34,
  • EUR down to 1.124.

Commentary on markets

Wheat markets sold off today Chicago wheat closed -5¢ to 464.5¢, KC -6¢ to 438 3/4, Minny -8¢ to 560¢, and Matif -1/2€ to 186€ on the earlier close. Corn was up a quarter of a cent to 374¢ while beans picked up 2¢ to 889.5¢ and Matif rapeseed dropped 1/2€ to 357 3/4 (Winnipeg canola was up $3.8 to 455.2). Crude oil was down a few cents to $59.3/barrel WTI ($67.8 Brent) and the DOW was up 92 points. The AUD is trading at 70.8¢, the EUR at $1.334, and the CAD at $1.123. Meanwhile, the pound is a cent weaker to $1.305 amid ongoing Brexit concerns – politicians there will be voting on a “withdrawal agreement” on Friday that might meet EU requirements to extend the Brexit date but which leaves open all the recent problems in reaching a broader agreement. News headlines are pushing more optimistic ideas on trade talks, with suggestions that China is offering concessions on on cloud computing and tech transfer rules – but, as always, we have yet to see anything firm come through there.

US export sales figures grains tops, beans slipped

Export sales figures from the US were on the top end of expectations for wheat (at 475 kmt, vs ideas sub 450 kmt) and about as expected on corn (905 kmt, with ideas plus or minus 200-300 kmt from that). However bean sales far underperformed with only 182 kmt seen (and no Chinese business) and also didn’t get any sorghum sales or any new Chinese pork purchases. At the same time though rumors have been pushing around all night that Chinese buyers booked 1.5 MMT of late season (July/August) shipments – no sales flashes there yet, but if accurate we should see something tomorrow. We do note that today’s export sales flash of 120 kmt was only the GASC results from yesterday coming through – and will come up yet again in the regular export sales report. There was also a 150 kmt Iraqi flash though – two boats of which were for new crop.

River woes ease in the south

To put the logistics problems we’ve been discussing recently into perspective, rail movements in the US of grain were down some 22% YOY in the last week. Field work has been picking up in the south though, with activity reported in the drier spots of Arkansas and Missouri already (although low lying areas are still saturated). Corn and bean markets will be watching the USDA’s prospective plantings reports tonight.

Australia

Back locally, we do note that there has been some improvement to the weather models into the weekend – with 10-15 mm now on the radar into parts of central-west NSW and chances for 25-30+ mm on the southern edge of the Downs. Fingers crossed . . .

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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