Higher for grains, mixed for oilseeds in very quiet trade, with US markets closed for Memorial Day.
- CBOT Wheat closed,
- Kansas wheat closed,
- Corn closed,
- Soybean closed,
- Winnipeg Canola down -2.90$C to 486.9$C,
- Matif canola up 0.75€ to 356.50€,
- Dow Jones down -2.670 to 21080.28,
- Crude Oil up 0.190c to 49.99c,
- AUD down to 0.743c
- CAD up to 1.345c, (AUDCAD 1.001),
- EUR down to 1.116c (AUDEUR 0.666).
Soybeans, corn and COT
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed some unwinding of the wheat and corn short positions and increases in the bean position. Wheat came in at -140,500 vs -151,400 contracts; Corn came in at -199,300 vs -218,500 contracts; Beans came in at -87,500 vs -58,600 contracts.
Canola came under pressure from follow-through selling based on last week’s declining technical picture. With the US markets all closed, volume was quite low, with most of the market on holiday. Planting delays in Canada are an ongoing concern, with chatter regarding the effects a late plant can have on yields.
A slightly bullish bias for wheat is gaining momentum, given the longer-term technical picture, combined with some of the production threats we are facing. European weather is still an issue, with moisture-stressed areas in France, Spain and the UK all looking at yield declines. This is also having an impact on their barley prices, which may be adding to the support Aussie feed and malt is currently seeing.
Concerns are mounting for more weather damage in the US due to more cold and wet conditions forecast later this week. Early HRW harvest results in Texas have shown some signs of quality damage, so things could be looking to open stronger when trading resumes.
Australia’s forecast has not improved, remaining dry for the next eight days. Yield concerns are mounting for WA and SA, where April/May rainfall has been well below average. Cash markets have been quiet in wheat, despite the increase in futures. Barley remains strong as the tightness in the balance sheet eventuates.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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