Daily Market Wire 29 May 2019

Lachstock Consulting, May 29, 2019

Solid gains were made again in US markets on Tuesday;

    • Chicago wheat July contract up 15.75c/bu to 504.75;
    • Kansas wheat July contract was up 18.75c/bu to 460.75;
    • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 9.5c/bu to 557.50
    • MATIF wheat September contract up EUR2.75/t to 184.75
    • MATIF rapeseed August contract up EUR3.75/t to EUR369.50
    • Winnipeg canola July contract up $C5.10/t to $C450.90
    • Corn July contract up 16c/bu to 420.25
    • Soybeans July contract up 26.25 to 856
    • Crude oil July contract up 0.51USD/bbl to $59.14
    • Dow Jones down 237.92 points to 25,347.77
    • AUD up to 0.6923
    • CAD down to 1.3491
    • EUR down to 1.1167

US corn in uncharted waters, price hike shuts down export sales

Markets came out of the Memorial Day long weekend with renewed interest to own everything on the board. The moisture outlook in the US was the driver as the market tried to rationalise the potential impact to both the row crops and wheat ahead of the USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report released last night after the market closed. The estimates on the close were for 63pc of corn to be already planted, which turned out to be aggressive because the USDA subsequently pegged the US corn crop as 58pc in the ground. Make no mistake, we are in uncharted waters here – there isn’t an analogue year that we can compare this one to. The US has the potential to not plant over 10 million acres of corn based on the current planting pace and the fact we are now knocking up against prevent plant dates. Coupled with the additional yield loss that will inevitably come and the US situation has gone from extremely comfortable to tight like a tiger. The saving grace for not only the corn balance sheet but also wheat and beans is that price is already doing what it needs to do – shutting off exports. With ample corn (South American) and wheat (Black Sea and EU) availability the global market is dragging its feet during this rally. As an example, Chicago wheat has rallied just over USD$27/t from the early May low while Platts’ Black Sea wheat has rallied USD$15/t during the same period, $6/t of that was put on yesterday.


Domestically, both the old crop and new crop markets tick higher. Delivered Melb ASW1 is nominally quoted at $390 for July which is now around $40 higher than the lows posted earlier this month. ASX new crop has rallied $55 over the same period while barley walking a similar path. Conditions are fast becoming about the haves and have nots – SA, Vic and southern NSW are, generally, in good shape. The rest of the country needs a drink. Additionally, things have got cold – in Vic today it will snow down to 600 metres – that means the Grampians could get a dusting today. This won’t help pasture growth and, with sheep feeding adding a meaningful amount of demand this year it looks like this may continue in some areas.


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