Corn gains 3pc, leads all markets firmer.
- Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US11.5 cents per bushel to 647.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December 2023 up 3c/bu to 809.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 9.25c/bu to 825c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December 2023 up €5.25/t to €233/t;
- Black Sea wheat December 2023 unchanged at US$267.75/t;
- Corn September 2023 contract up US18.5c/bu to 529c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2023 contract up 17.25c/bu to 1189.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola contract up C$3.80/t to $658.80/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 up €4/t to €417.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$1/t to $396/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract up $8 to $340/t;
- AUD dollar gained 13 points to US$0.6518.
US President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an in-principle agreement to lift the debt limit for two years, after marathon crisis negotiations. “It is an important step forward that reduces spending while protecting critical programs for working people and growing the economy for everyone,” President Biden said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was re-elected yesterday, gaining 52.1pc of the vote, compared with 47.9pc for his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The JCC has said that the daily rate of completed Black Sea vessel inspections is running at 3.2 vessels so far this month, down from 4 in April and the lowest since the corridor opened. The JCC “has not reached consensus to register vessels” since April 29 for Pivdennyi port, which accounts for more than a third of the shipment volumes via the corridor. Russia is already saying the same old “if our demands are not met, we will not renew”.
SovEcon estimates Ukraine wheat production at 18.5Mt, up 0.4Mt from a previous estimate, due to strong April rains. Corn crop estimate revised down 0.3Mt to 23.1Mt, on smaller plantings. Grain exports in the 2023-24 season are expected to shrink y/y because of lower harvests and smaller reserves, with wheat seen at 10.5Mt (16Mt previous year) and corn seen at 19Mt (28.3Mt).
The European Commission has pegged EU soft-wheat production at 131.5Mt, up from an April estimate for 130.2Mt. That’s up 4.6pc y/y and 5.8pc above the five-year average. Grain production prospects are improving in France and Romania, offsetting the drought in Spain. Soft-wheat export forecast kept steady at 32Mt. Barley crop estimate trimmed 0.2Mt to 52Mt, corn crop estimate cut 0.3Mt to 64.1Mt.
FranceAgriMer reports that as at 22 May, 2023-24 common wheat crop rated 93pc good/excellent (93pc previous week, 69pc previous year), durum at 86pc (87pc, 67pc), winter barley at 90pc (90pc, 66pc), spring barley at 95pc (95pc, 61pc) and maize at 94pc (94pc, 90pc). Maize planting at 95pc complete (88pc previous week, 99pc previous year).
Turkish Statistical Office reports 2023 wheat production is expected to increase by 3.8pc to 20.5Mt, Barley production seen rising 1.2pc to 8.6Mt.
Germany’s grains harvest is now seen at 43.2Mt, up from an April estimate of 42.8mt, but slightly below 2022. Wheat is seen at 22.3Mt (22.5Mt in 2022), barley at 10.9Mt (11.2Mt) and rapeseed at 4.28Mt, unchanged from 2022.
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased an estimated 56,000 t US milling wheats, including 37,610t DNS (14.5pc), at $399.14/t fob, 11,720t HRW (12.5pc), at $334.00/t fob, and 6,670t SW, at $265.65/t fob.
The local market was firmer to finish the week supported by offshore futures rallying and a weaker AUD. ASX January 2024 pushed to $398/t, gaining $18/t for the week. Everyone is watching the weather as the grower waits for production security and the trade looks for liquidity creating a bit of a standoff.
SA picked up some handy rainfall totals for the week with 10-50mm received across most cropping regions and Vic picked up 10-25mm. There is more rainfall on the radar for most cropping regions with southern WA and NSW looking to pick up the best totals. The 10-25mm forecast for parts of northwest NSW would be very welcome to get more crop in the ground after a dry autumn and the 10-15mm for other areas will keep things ticking along nicely if it eventuates.