Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 29, 2024

Matif wheat eased and US wheat firmed a little. Corn and the oilseeds eased a little.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up 3c/bu to US742.25c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 7.75c/bu to 761c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 4.5c/bu to 781.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €4.50/t to €269.50/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 down 3c/bu to 485.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 9c/bu to 1210.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C2.60/t to C$690.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €1.25/t to €496.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$3/t to $407/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley up $2/t to $347.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 4 points to US$0.6650.

International

The Russian Grain Union estimates that 1.5 million hectares of crops in Russia have been damaged by bitter frosts and the total figure may rise to 2 million hectares. It estimates that Russia’s total grain production will be lower than 130Mt, without providing a break down. May grain exports were estimated at 4.6Mt, including 3.8Mt wheat. It said supplies have declined significantly recently and lag last year. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop forecast to 82.1Mt, down from 85.7Mt, reflecting greater-than-expected damage to winter wheat crops after May frosts. It noted current weather conditions remain challenging and that many critical winter wheat regions, including Rostov, are still too dry. May wheat export forecast was revised upward by 0.2Mt, at 4.3Mt, barley at 400kt and maize at 500kt. 

Ukrainian Grain Association cut its forecast for Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed production by 1.5Mt to 74.6Mt (82.8Mt previous year), including corn at 25.5Mt (29.6Mt), wheat at 19.1Mt (22Mt), barley at 4.6Mt (5.8Mt), sunseed at 13.7Mt (14.2Mt) and rapeseed at 4.3Mt (4.5Mt). 

The latest European Commission MARS update noted that 2024-25 EU crop yield forecast remains above the 5-year average. Yield forecasts for winter crops further improved for Spain and Portugal. They reduced for Italy and several countries in western Europe where wet weather has resulted in waterlogging, high pest pressure and/or delays to sowing, which may prove detrimental for yields. Amid persistent water deficits in eastern Germany and Poland, more rains are needed to sustain the positive yield outlook. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 147Mt for soybeans and 112Mt for corn. Dr Cordonnier has a neutral bias toward both crops as he monitors soybean losses in Rio Grande do Sul due to recent flooding and weather conditions for the safrinha corn crop in central and south-central areas. He left his Argentine production estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 47Mt for corn, with a lower bias toward both amid falling yields as harvest progresses. 

Agribusiness consultancy AgRural pegged Brazil’s 2023-24 corn production at 118.4Mt.  

US private exporters reported sales of 215kt of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 165kt is for the 2023-24 marketing year and 50kt is for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

WA current crop wheat values have traded mostly sideways since the end of last week, Kwinana APW1 is A$420/t FIS, H2 about $428/t FIS and H1 about $440/t. New season canola (CAN) bids continue to firm with accumulators struggling to find any liquidity from the grower, prices are now $830/t FIS. New season APW1 MG Wheat bids strengthened to $435/t FIS. Feed barley MG bids remain around $355/t FIS, with a plus $20/t for malt. 

Line ups data shows total grain on the stem edged lower this week to 2.78Mt. Wheat moved from 1.65Mt to 1.57Mt, barley was down slightly to 434kt, canola at 645kt is down from 680kt and sorghum at 140kt is down from 190kt. Wait time at Australian grain ports remained varied throughout the week with the overall average less than 16 days, with 11 vessels anchored and 5 currently loading.

 

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