Daily Market Wire 29 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting November 29, 2022

Australian wheat futures fell 4pc yesterday. US wheat eased 1-2pc. Soybeans and canola gained more than 1pc. Rapeseed eased 1pc. US dollar index gained and the Dow Jones Industrials Average eased more than 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US16.25 cents per bushel to 780.75/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 17c/bu at 895c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 9.75c/bu to 939.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €3.25/t to  €315.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.50/t to $320.50/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract unchanged at 671.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 20.5c/bu to 1462.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was up C$11.80/t to $817.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €5.75/t to €584.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract settlement price was down A$16.50/t to $407/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$2.50/t to $325/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.665.


The European Commission cut maize crop forecast by another 1.6Mt, to 53.3Mt (73.2Mt previous year) with forecast imports raised by 1Mt, to 23Mt (16.3Mt). It trimmed its 2022-23 rapeseed production estimate by 0.1Mt this month, to 19.4Mt (17.1Mt previous year), common wheat by 0.2Mt to 127Mt (129Mt previous year) and barley was maintained at 51.6Mt (51.4Mt).  

Argentina’s Economy Minister has announced Argentina will reintroduce a preferential currency exchange rate (“soy dollar”) scheme for soybean and by-product exports between 28 Nov and 31 Dec which will be set at 230 Argentine Peso (ARS230) to one US dollar. Market rate presently is ARS166. 

Ukraine yesterday said November grain exports would not reach 3Mt, down from 4.2Mt in October, the infrastructure minister saying Russia was trying to limit inspections at the export checkpoint. 

The Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre said on Monday currently 98 vessels were waiting in Turkish territorial waters. Of the 98, 75 inbound were waiting to move, pending inspection, into Ukrainian ports which it said had capacity to export approximately 1.7Mt grain and other food products. It said some vessels have waited for over a month and 23 vessels already loaded with cargo were awaiting outbound inspection. 

Ukraine Agriculture Ministry data at 28 Nov reported cumulative 2022/23 (Jul/Jun) grain exports totalled 17.3Mt (25.3Mt same period last year), including wheat at 6.6Mt (14.5Mt), barley at 1.4Mt (4.9Mt) and maize at 9.1Mt (5.5Mt). 

Ukrainian agricultural trade strategist Barva Invest reports that for many farmers, electricity and internet are interrupted. So not everyone who wants to sell has the technical ability to do it. In addition, the execution of contracts requires the coordination of several people – both representatives of the seller and buyer counterparties. The lack of stable internet connection affects not only communication, but also document flow. 


Local markets started the week down. Wheat was down around $10/t on the cash boards and trade markets for Jan-plus-carry were softer by $5-7/t. Barley was also down $3-5/t in the eastern states.

CBH received 2.983Mt for the week taking the total to 6.934Mt. Its latest harvest report notes that due to improved weather conditions, most growers across the state have finally experienced some good harvesting conditions and some higher-than-expected yields. Better weather conditions led to CBH breaking several site receival records last week. 



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