Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 29, 2023

Corn eased in overnight trading while other offshore markets firmed, as did the Australian dollar.

  • Chicago December wheat up 9.5c/bu to US543.75c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat up 23c/bu to 613c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat up 10c/bu to 694.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec up €2/t to €215/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 4c/bu to 451.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 16.5c/bu to 1378.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$8.60/t to C$717/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.50/t to €449.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $389.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$6/t to $319.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 42 points to  US$0.6649.

International

A record-breaking storm continues to impact the Black Sea region with icy snow storms crippling infrastructure, blocking roads and cutting power. 

AgRural Brazil reports that as November 23, 2023-24 soybean planting was 74 percent done versus 87pc at the same time last year, the lowest since 2015-16, owing to excessive rain in southern regions, most notably Rio Grande do Sul. Despite recent favourable rain in central-northern states, more is needed. First (full-season) maize crop plantings in the centre-south region are 83pc complete (88pc), with the sowing in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana almost finished.

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has kept his Brazilian crop estimates unchanged at 158Mt for soybeans and 121 million tonnes (Mt) for corn, citing beneficial recent rainfall. Dr Cordonnier maintained his lower bias toward both crops, noting heavier and better coverage of rainfall will be needed. He kept his Argentine estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 52Mt for corn. He has a neutral-to-higher bias for the Argentine soybean crop and neutral-to-lower bias toward corn.

SovEcon expects Russia’s wheat crop to fall to 89.8Mt in 2024, down from 91.5Mt in 2023. The yield in 2024 is expected to move lower on expected average crop conditions and decline in input application as farmers will be cutting costs substantially amid declining margins.

Repeated showers in western Europe in the past month have disrupted sowing of winter cereals, while persisting dryness in the south-east of the continent has also delayed field work, according to the the European Commission’s crop monitoring service.

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has reportedly issued an international tender to purchase up to 109,000t of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the US. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer has canceled their tender for 120,000t of wheat, citing high prices.

US private exporters reported sales of 123,300t of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

South Korea’s Nov 28 flour millers’ tender calls for 95,000t of milling wheat from the US and Canada for Feb-Mar shipment.

South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) reportedly purchased 52,000t of feed maize from Brazil, at an estimated US$260.90/t c&f, plus a surcharge for additional port unloading of $1.50/t, Dec-Jan shipment.

Australia

Eastern markets were softer by $8-$10/t yesterday but firmed a little later in the day. Offshore moves initially drove the sell-off, but the current weather event is also seeing buyers step aside until it passes. We have seen 24 hour totals above 50mm in parts of southern NSW, with more on the forecast today.

 

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