Markets

Daily market wire 3 April 2017

Lachstock Consulting, April 3, 2017

Overnight markets:

lackstock1

USDA reports, including the important USDA March 31 US prospective plantings report, and the USDA grain stocks report,  proved positive for grains and negative for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat was up 5.5c to 426.5c,
  • Kansas wheat up 3.25c to 420.5c,
  • corn up 6.75c to 364.25c,
  • soybeans down -17c to 946c,
  • Winnipeg canola down -2.80$C to 484.4$C,
  • Matif canola down -2.25€ to 393.25€.
  • The Dow Jones down -65.27 to 20663.22,
  • Crude Oil up 0.5c to 50.85c,
  • AUD up to 0.762c,
  • CAD down to 1.331c, (AUDCAD 1.015)
  • EUR down to 1.066c (AUDEUR 0.716).

.

Soybeans

Soybeans had significant losses after the report. Acres were 1.3 million higher than market expectations, while March 1 stocks were 1.735 vs. market estimates of 1.679 million bushels. Soybeans continue to make new lows, suggesting further technical weakness. Some quarter end positive squaring was noted, though this wasn’t a catalyst for price support, the increased acreage and large South American production are not encouraging a bid. Bean commitment of traders (COT) position is +10,300 contracts vs. +33,100 last week.

Canola

Canola futures were lower following oilseed weakness.  They did not however close at their lows and seem to have uncovered good buying support below current levels. USDA had canola area 12% higher than last year, as well as increasing the EU crop slightly to 22.5Mt.

Corn

Corn futures were higher despite mixed signals in the USDA report. The March 1 stocks were considered slightly bearish at 8.62 billion bushels vs. expectations of 8.53, while the acreage forecast was considered bullish at 89.99 million acres vs. expectations of 90.9. Corn COT drastically increased their short position from -77,500 to -149,300 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat was higher on some mild short covering, though the USDA numbers were not overly surprising. All wheat acres were in line with market expectations at 46.06 million vs. 50.2 last year. March 1 stocks were slightly above expectations and 21% above last year. Away from the report there were some reports of frost damage in Russia, which made headlines. The COT increased from -134,900 to -157,600 contracts.

Australia

Queensland and some parts of northern NSW continued to endure the impacts of tropical cyclone Debbie over the weekend, with flooding noted in some key production regions. Most of Queensland’s grain producing regions last week received between 100-200 mm, while most of NNSW looks to have received 25-50 mm. The effects on production are not yet known, though this cannot be good for unharvested summer crops. Its certainly good for winter crops, provided the crop can go in.

 

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