Daily Market Wire 3 April 2019

Lachstock Consulting, April 3, 2019

Grains and oilseeds futures mostly traded firmer by half per cent or less; Tuesday’s settlements as follows;

  • CBOT wheat May contract up 1.25c to 464c per bushel
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 1.25c to 433.25c
  • Corn May contract down 0.25c to 361.5c
  • Soybeans May contract up 4.5c to 900c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$2.10 to $456.70 per tonne
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €2 to 361.50/t
  • Dow Jones down 79.29 points to 26,179.13
  • Crude oil May contract up US$0.99 to 62.58
  • AUD down to 0.7060c
  • CAD down to 1.335
  • EUR down to 1.119.

Commentary on markets

Wheat sold off through the overnight before pushing back through the US day session to close nearly unchanged – Chicago wheat ended +1 1/4¢ to 464, KC – 1 1/4¢ to 433 1/4, and Matif was up a quarter of a euro to 187 1/4. Minny got hammered though, trading down 12 1/4¢ to 540 3/4 and setting new contract lows as funds close some of their discretionary length and logistics continue to improve. Corn closed down a quarter of a cent to 361.5¢, beans +4.5¢ to hit the psychological $9 even mark, and canola closed up $2.1 CAD to $458.7 (matif +2€ to 361.5). US crude is up another buck to $62.6 (brent up 45¢ to $69.5/barrel) and the DOW has given up 87 points as of writing. The AUD has fallen back to 70.6¢ after yesterday’s RBA decision left rates unchanged but concerned the market with their more pessimistic wording on the outlook for the labour market. Meanwhile the EUR is slightly weaker to $1.119 and the CAD is steady at $1.335. Brexit politics are back to more delay requests after failed votes yesterday – the Prime Minister there will be asking for a second extension to May 22 (before EU elections) in a hope of passing an exit deal. Expect more headlines and volatility ahead in the pound.

World crops and trade news

Global grain market news has been fundamentally quiet the last few days, with row crop planting still to hit full pace in the US (floods don’t help that any) and winter crops filling in – no disaster stories there yet (though the EU dryness we mentioned yesterday again is starting to grab some more focus – EU analyst groups are making specific note of the ongoing Romanian dryness). On the bean side, Brazilian harvest is pushing over 75% complete and exports continue to pick up pace – estimates on March shipments were up to 8.9 MMT (vs 8.8 last year, and 2.9 MMT higher than Feb exports). Meanwhile, we didn’t see any more flashed bean sales last night from the USDA, disappointing those who had extended hopes that there would be more in the works. Demand on meals remains a risk flag there, and there have also been reports of two more ASF cases in China – plus news from the Japanese Ag Ministry that they discovered contaminated meat entering the country there (from China).


Back locally, field work continues to pick up – early planting has been ongoing for a bit in eastern parts of NSW with some canola and grazing crops going in, but still looking for moisture further west. Still not much help coming on the extended forecasts in the east and SA, although two streaks of showers in the models will be well appreciated (assuming they come) in WA. Grain markets have been relatively quiet, with everyone attempting to ascertain the forward weather risk

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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