Grains eased, rapeseed firmed. Crude oil has rallied 4 percent in three days. The Dow eased 1pc. 

• Chicago December 2024 wheat down US6.75c/bu to 603.75c/bu
• Kansas December 2024 wheat down 11.5c/bu to 591.25c/bu
• Minneapolis December 2024 wheat  down 5.5c/bu to 665c/bu
• MATIF wheat December 2024 down €2.25/t to €221.75/t;
• Corn December 2024 down 6.75c/bu to 468c/bu;
• Soybeans November 2024 down 5.5c/bu to 1177c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$1.30/t to $652.10/t
• MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €6.75/t to €457.50/t
• ASX May 2024 wheat unchanged at A$325/t;
• ASX January 2025 wheat unchanged at A$348/t
• ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$294.50/t;
• ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$311/t
• AUD dollar up 28 points to US$0.6518.

Reuters reported that Indian officials have informally asked global and domestic trade houses to avoid buying new-crop wheat from local farmers until at least some time in April, India’s first such guidance since 2007, to help the Food Corporation of India procure large quantities to boost reserves. 

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in India has forecast that India may import 2 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in 2024-25 despite record production. It reflects steady domestic demand, a decline in government stockpiles and relatively weak global prices. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon reported that as of March 1, on farm wheat stocks in Russia’s south (a key export region) at 5.6Mt, are up 12pc from last year, which is a more significant increase than in other regions. National on-farm wheat stocks (excluding small farms) are estimated at 17.5Mt, marginally higher than last year. 

Financial services company StoneX cut its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production forecast by 0.7Mt, to 150.8Mt (Conab 146.9Mt). Domestic use seen at 57.5Mt (55.9m), exports at 93.0Mt (92.3Mt). Total 2023-24 maize production steady at 124.2Mt (112.8Mt), with safrinha at 96.1Mt (87.4Mt) and primary at 25.9Mt (23.4Mt). Exports at 45.0Mt (32.0Mt), domestic use at 84.0Mt (84.1Mt).
The USDA FAS post in Brazil has pegged 2023-24 corn production at 122Mt, 2Mt tonnes lower than the official USDA number. It also cut 2023-24 exports to 45Mt, 7Mt less than the USDA official number. For 2024-25, it projected Brazil’s corn production to rise to 129Mt and exports to rebound to 51Mt.

Australia

The WA wheat market is holding at similar levels to pre-Easter, with APW1 in the Kwinana port zone at A$380/t FIS. The other port zones are currently bid around $7-10/t under Kwinana. Feed barley buying interest remains strong and bids have improved further to $344/t FIS for Kwinana, while Maxi1 malt barley is at $350/t. Canola values have eased slightly to around $685/t FIS for Kwinana, Albany and Esperance. New season canola is at $705/t FIS and new season wheat bids are $365/t FIS Kwinana. 

Line ups data this week shows March ended the month with 3.21Mt of total grain on the stem down from 3.47Mt last week as vessels were rolled over to this month. April is currently showing 3.11Mt of total grain on the stem, including 1.78Mt wheat, 612kt barley and 718kt canola. There are currently no bulk sorghum vessels on the stem.