Daily Market Wire 3 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting, August 3, 2018

Higher for grains mixed for oilseeds, in a very volatile session.

  • CBOT wheat up2.25c to 560.5c,
  • Kansas wheat up 5.5c to 569.25c,
  • corn up 1.75c to 366.75c,
  • soybeans down -4.25c to 882.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola up 0.20$C to 496$C, and
  • Matif canola up 1.5€ to 381€.
  • The Dow Jones down -7.65 to 25326.16,
  • Crude Oil up 0.01c to $US68.97 per barrel,
  • AUD down to 0.736c,
  • CAD up to 1.302c, (AUDCAD 0.958) and the
  • EUR down to 1.158c (AUDEUR 0.635).


Wheat finished stronger, but miles off the highs. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat was up US33c/bu at one stage on bullish news out of the Black Sea. Matif wheat finished up €5.50/t at €212.75/t closing €7.25/t off the daily highs as news that the Ukraine was going to ban milling exports circulated. This triggered stops which saw the gains accentuated before the government announced that there would be no export restrictions. Implied volatility in September SRW finished at 36.25pc. GASC purchased 240,000t of Russian/Romanian wheat between US$251/t and $255/t landed, these prices are $17/t higher than the last tender one and a half weeks ago! Algeria also purchased 320,000t at $273/t cost and freight (cfr) and Iraq booked Aussie wheat despite cheaper US offers. US export sales came in near expectations at 382,000t.


Corn followed price action in wheat, finishing with slight gains. The feed grain deficit in Europe is building and upside ideas on US yields are now sitting around 178bpa. If the heat that affected spring wheat yields has also hit corn then yields could get as low as 172bpa which would be fairly bullish. Export sales in corn came in at 272,000t in old crop and 986,000t in new crop.


Soybeans finished with mild losses but well off the lows as trade war volatility continues. Soymeal was down -$3.50 per tonne and soy oil was down 33 cents. With a large spec short in beans the only hope of a bid amidst the trade issues is via profit taking or a US crop issue.


Australian markets were quiet yesterday with most of the trade busy at the grains conference. The weather forecast is unchanged with limited rainfall for NSW but minor falls in parts of Vic, SA and WA. The wold cereal situation is getting worse and Australia’s supply is shrinking. It will be interesting to see price action when the trade gets back to normal post conference. With a lot of bullish chatter and national media coverage it will be interesting to see how high we can go on emotion and fear.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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