Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 August 2020

Lachstock Consulting, August 3, 2020

Futures firmed.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US1.75c/bu to 531.25c
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 2.5c/bu to 442.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 1c/bu to 514c;
  • Corn September contract up 0.25c/bu to 316;
  • Soybeans August contract up 5.75c/bu to 897.5;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$1.40/t to $491.50;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25/t to €182.75;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.5/t to €381.75;
  • Brent crude October contract up US$0.27 per barrel to $43.52;
  • Dow Jones index up 115 points to 26,428;
  • AUD weaker at $0.7145;
  • CAD firmer at $1.3405;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1785.

Markets

The US dollar index saw a small bounce.  On the macro side, we’re keeping an eye on this US stimulus – the latest updates suggested that meetings have hit yet another stumbling block in reaching an agreement.  The longer they go without a resolution the more significant the short-term impacts will be, regardless of the end package.  Coronavirus is also flaring up around the rest of the world again even as US cases drop off, big numbers in Mexico and India raising worries over the weekend.

Agricultural markets generally ended the week quietly, no fresh China business to be seen in spite of ongoing rumours.  Let’s see what this week brings.  Flash sales were reported on more soybean meal to The Philippines and 114,000t corn business to Mexico.  The weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders reports surprised nobody and positions were little changed. The size of the corn short increased to 143,000t net.

Feeder cattle markets have gotten a little more attention in recent days with the ongoing lower slaughter numbers prompting discussion on the cash side.  Feeder cattle fund positions were up in line with the market moves.

Northern hemisphere crops mostly done

French wheat harvest is just about wrapped up. French government figures pegged it at 90pc complete and there’s more progress since then. While worries remain about the spring wheat crops in Russia and Kazakhstan, neither is as directly significant to the grain export front as the Russian winter wheat crop. That’s not to say the spring crop outcomes don’t impact on the margins and shift some local demand.

With northern hemisphere crops mostly done, other than spring wheat, the Argentine and Australian crops are now top of the headline list. Weather in Argentina is certainly not looking optimistic, if anything the current forecasts look more pessimistic, hot and dry, compared with the previous two weeks of weather. Some are beginning to look at further cuts.

Australia

The trade, along with everyone in Australian agriculture, is keeping a close eye on the weather maps.  The latest runs continue to look promising for WA and NSW although more patchy into SA and Victoria.  Grain markets new season ended last week relatively flat, following global moves.  Prices quotes new crop delivered Geelong/Melbourne, ASW wheat ended the week about $295-6/t, Darling Downs feed wheat in the low $300s per tonne for Jan, and barley-wheat spreads were about $50/t down south and $30-35/t up north.

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