Daily Market Wire 3 February 2023

Lachstock Consulting, February 3, 2023

Most markets eased in fractions overnight. The Australian dollar fell by almost as much as it had gained the previous day.

  • Chicago wheat July 2023 contract up US2.5 cents per bushel to 775.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July 2023 contract down 2.5c/bu at 865.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 0.5c/bu to 918.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 contract down €1.25/t to €281.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at US$304.75/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 5.75c/bu to 673.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract up 11.25c/bu to 1527.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract down C$2.90/t to $825.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €3.25/t to €544.25/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract up A$1/t to $376.50/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$315/t;
  • AUD dollar eased to US$0.708.


Egypt’s GASC has reportedly purchased 535,000t wheat in its recent tender at US$323-$326/t, all Russian origin for Feb-Mar shipment. 

Argentina’s crop conditions improved for the second week in a row after earlier rains according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, with soybeans rated good/excellent increasing from 7pc to 12pc and corn from 12pc to 22pc good/excellent.
The US weekly sales report had wheat sales of 136,400t for 2022-23, down 73pc from the previous week and 51pc from the prior 4-week average. Corn sales of 1.59Mt were up 75pc from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to unknown destinations (423,100t), Mexico (323,600t) and China (319,500t). Soybeans sales of 736,000t were down 36pc from the previous week and 18pc from the prior 4-week average. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research has pegged US 2023-24 winter wheat production at 37.3Mt (30.3Mt previous year). Expanding drought across the central Plains continues to pose a significant downside risk to yield potential, with near-term forecasts pointing to continued dry conditions over the coming week. Winterkill concerns remain low given forecasts for warmer weather and sufficient snow coverage throughout the upper part of the Plains and the Midwest. 

StoneX Group has revised up its 2022-23 soybean production forecast for Brazil by 400,000t to 154.2Mt (152.7Mt Conab, January forecast, 125.5Mt previous year), with corn output seen at a record 129.9Mt (125.1Mt January, 113.1Mt previous year).
Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR cut its 2023 Russian wheat production estimate to 84Mt from 87Mt, Interfax reported. This was due to the icy conditions around the Moscow region, temperatures of -30C in several regions which impacted crops, and dryness in the south of Russia. IKAR estimated the total grains harvest at 128.5Mt. 

China’s imports and exports are facing an “extremely severe” environment due to the surging risks of global recession and slowing external demand, Li Xingqian, an official at the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference on Thursday.



Local markets found some prompt demand and strength in the South Australian port zones of Wallaroo and Port Giles yesterday for wheat, with lower grades trading on Clear Grain Exchange at $380/t port for ASW1. Barley was largely unchanged yet again and canola was softer by a few bucks. 

According to the BOM’s three-month outlook issued yesterday, February to April has close to equal chances of above and below median rainfall for most of the country, although there are moderate chances (60 to 70pc chance) of below median rainfall along the west coast and throughout pockets of inland Australia in all mainland states.


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