Daily Market Wire 3 June 2019

Lachstock Consulting, June 3, 2019

Grains and oilseeds futures lower on Friday, crude down hard;

    • Chicago wheat July contract down 11.5c/bu to 503;
    • Kansas wheat July contract was down 6c/bu to 473;
    • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 11.5c/bu to 552;
    • MATIF wheat September contract unchanged EUR1/t to 185.25
    • MATIF rapeseed August contract down EUR1.75/t to EUR370.25
    • Winnipeg canola July contract up $C0.40/t to $C459.50
    • Corn July contract down 9.25c/bu to 427
    • Soybeans July contract down 11.25c/bu to 877.75
    • Crude oil July contract down US$3.09/barrel to $53.50
    • Dow Jones down 354.86 points to 24,815.04
    • AUD up to 0.6931
    • CAD up to 1.3521
    • EUR up to 1.1172

Crop progress report will refresh overnight Monday

Markets closed out the week searching for fair value. Fundamentals continue to do battle with outside influences such as the seemingly endless rounds of trade disputes. Trump put Mexico on notice by placing a 5pc tariff on their goods starting on June 10 and then ramping up to 25pc if they don’t sort out the flow of illegal immigrants to the US. This is clearly not ideal for US corn in particular if things escalate – but, given the uncertainty surrounding these things its logical that the market took some money off the table. Fundamentally I’m not sure what has changed – the weather maps in the US still look like the kids attacked it with the red crayons – this morning, more rainfall built into western Kansas in both the front and back end. The potential for damage will be clarified in part tonight when we get the latest crop progress report. The national crop was 66pc headed last week with Kansas at 84pc. While damage is difficult to assess the good to excellent rating will give us some indication of the damage the unseasonal rainfall has caused. Corn planting pace will also be extremely important with many states hitting prevent plant dates

Australia had a solid week

Locally the maps finally have some hope built into WA and parts of southern NSW. This rainfall would be extremely timely and would slow crop production estimates from sliding. The old crop market had a solid week last week with both WA and the east coast firming $10-22 across wheat and barley. Transhipment calculations were extremely volatile but finished Friday with import margins open for barley into Qld. The southern markets are still some $20-$30 away from bringing in WA grain so the local market needs to keep finding supply.


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