Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 3, 2022

Australian wheat values have softened, while US soybeans and Black Sea wheat gained 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US17 cents per bushel to 1058.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 15.25c/bu to 1143.50c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 2.5c/bu to 1199.50c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €2/t to €382.50/t;
  •  Black Sea wheat July contract up $9.75/t to $405/t;
  •  Corn July contract down 1c/bu to 730.25c/bu;
  •  Soybeans July contract up 39c/bu to 1729.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$13.40/t at $1041.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €0.50/t to €791.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$21.30/t to $445/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $15/t to $460/t;
  • AUD dollar firmed at US$0.726.

International

Ukraine’s Grain Traders Union lifted its wheat production forecast by 1 million tonnes (Mt) from April to 19.2Mt (33Mt last year) and corn was up 3Mt to 26.1Mt (37.6Mt last year). It expects wheat exports to be 10Mt and corn 15Mt. It was noted that with current export capacity only estimated at about 18Mt, much will depend on the addition of throughput capacity at western border crossings. Due to a sharp fall in exports, Ukraine’s grain stocks are projected to reach a record high of 25Mt, but could potentially increase to as much as 43Mt should exports fall short of expectations.

The export corridor talk persists but ultimately, it’s hard to believe until basic questions are answered, mainly who gets the money.

Ukraine is reportedly working with international partners to create a United Nations-backed mission to restore Black Sea shipping routes. Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said: “We call on countries whose food security may suffer more from Russian aggression against Ukraine to use their contacts with Moscow to force it to lift the blockade of Ukrainian seaports and end the war”.

Ample rice reserves in India and expectations for bountiful monsoon rains should allay concerns about the possibility of any drastic measures to curb exports, according to National Commodities Management Services Ltd. Global markets are worried that rice may be next on the agenda after India restricted wheat and sugar exports. Unlike other commodities, rice has been relatively stable.

Indian wheat exports are estimated at 1.1Mt in May (1.5Mt in April), including almost 500,000t shipped since the export ban, which was mostly shipped to Bangladesh, The Philippines, Tanzania and Malaysia. According to local traders, at least 1.7Mt of wheat is still at ports and at risk of damage from monsoon rains.

Australia

Local markets still remain on the quiet side to round out the week. In wheat and barley markets, the bids are trying to drift lower while the offer side is doing its best to hold on the current crop. New-crop markets were unchanged to down $5/t while the January 2023 ASX East Coast wheat contract traded for smalls at A$460/t, then by the close it traded down to $456/t to settle the day.

Parts of central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland have only been able to plant around half of intended winter crop area because of excessive rain. Parts of central and southern NSW have had up to 35mm of rain in the past week, which is slowing up movements of grain off farm, and may prompt the need for resowing. Most other winter crop areas across Australia have finished sowing and are benefiting from the rain.

The eight-day forecast has another 15-25 millimetres pencilled in for most of southern Queensland and north-east NSW – certainly not what they are looking for at the moment. South-east NSW, most of Victoria and coastal South Australia are also looking at some good totals. Western Australia looks set for less than 10mm for most areas.

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