Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 3, 2021

Grain and oilseed markets closed higher in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US16c/bu to 666.25c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 12c/bu to 635.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 11.75c/bu to 645.25c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €2/t to €232;
  • Corn May contract up 6.75c/bu to 545c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 21.25c/bu to 1412.50c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$13.70/t to $753.10;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €6/t to €502.50;
  • Dow Jones down 144 points to 31,392;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.782;
  • CAD steady at $1.264;
  • EUR firmer at $1.208;
  • ASX wheat May contract down AU$1/t to $299;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 contract down $4.50/t to $307.50.

International

Turnaround Tuesday seems to be the theme in recent weeks and last night did not disappoint. Markets did a lot of rehashing in overnight trading of the ongoing stories: Concerns about wheat winterkill, and Brazilian and Argentinian weather concerns, and speculation about Chinese interest.

We did finally see a new flash export sale reported, with 175,000t of new-crop corn to Japan.

Commentator Michael Cordonnier came out with a higher Brazilian soybean estimate, up 2 million tonnes (Mt) to 132Mt, despite the ongoing harvest delays, and was unchanged on corn at 105Mt, though with a focus on the delayed planting which pushed back critical moisture windows.

Some estimates being discussed in the market have the backlog in Brazilian bean shipments upwards of 20Mt based on vessel movements and lineups, although beans are slowly picking up pace to port.

Jordan’s recent barley tender saw results out with two boats at around US$261 c and f for September, a slight discount backed off against recent traded values, but reflecting some increasing shifts in cash market interest towards new-season positioning.

Black Sea current-crop cash markets were fairly quiet on wheat, with little new business reported to start the week, and we note that the Russian export line-ups remain very light relative to the large February push which is racing to beat the tax.  Some more exports are to come, but in the short term, the market is very quiet and on the look-out for demand.

Australia
Local markets were very quiet, with values off a dollar or two in places, and many in the trade comfortable with their positions for now. There are still some large parcels on offer and available when people are chasing grain, so there is not much worry on trade desks about additional coverage.

More concerns about fertiliser availability going around as we move into pre-planting weeks, and tightness in supply seen earlier this year has not eased in most areas.

ABARES came out recently with its preliminary 2021-22 wheat estimate at 25Mt, 100,000t above the Lachstock estimate. These early estimates are no real surprise and of little significance at this point until we start seeing seed go into the ground.

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