Lower-pro US wheat markets again hit limit up nearby, while back months fell hard.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US75cents per bushel to 1059c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 72.25c/bu to 1075.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 4.5c/bu to 1058.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €0.50/t to €340.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat March contract up $29.25/t to $389.25/t
- Corn May contract down 0.75c/bu to 725c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract down 27c/bu to 1663c/bu;
- Soybean meal down 2pc;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$6.70/t to $884.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed August 2022 contract up €3/t to €711.50/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$8/t from $392/t to $400/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3/t to $402/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.730;
- Brent crude oil futures up 8pc;
- Dow Jones Industrials Average up 2pc.
In what is easily explained as an exit trade, US grain contracts in front months were bid to limit-up levels pre pit trading, came off during pit hours, and finished on limit again.
The financial implications of cutting Russia off from the world are only now being felt. Fitch rating agency has cut Russia to junk status amid the first rounds of Eurobond defaults. This has predictably led to increased scrutiny around cryptocurrencies and the ability to regulate them.
With prices across the ag space now at or above 2008 levels, it is safe to assume the global farmer gets busy. It is easy to assume we cannot plant more area, yet in both Europe and the US, government programs exist to set aside acres. Some of this area is not ideal cropping land but, should it be released, it is amazing what a US$10/bu wheat price can do.
Australian prices rose yesterday for all commodities. Wheat gained another A$5/t, and we saw volume change hands in Western Australia. We saw some more interest in new-crop wheat prices, with track South Australia and east coast all over $400/t.
Barley also firmed, and more interest for the nearby popped up, with delivered Geelong bid at $330/t, and SA track values push to $340 levels on the bid side. More barley continued to trade in SA, with Port Giles being well bid
Current and new-crop canola markets continued to rally locally, and tonnes continue to come to the market; port zones values are now at around $950-960/t.
The Ukraine-Russia war could open up a window for more Australia product to ship during the June-October period. This could eliminate the cliff-face for demand coming out of Australia, and a stronger tail of exports in back months, which is supportive to Australian basis versus Europe.
Source: Lachstock Consulting