Wheat managed to string together two days of gains across all three US pits.
- Chicago wheat up 8 cents per bushel to 444c;
- Kansas wheat up 5c to 405c ;
- Minneapolis wheat up 8.75c;
- Corn up 2c to 370.4c;
- Soybeans down 8.4c to 843.2c;
- Winnipeg canola down C$3.40 per tonne to $447.10;
- Dow Jones down 122.35 points,
- Crude oil down US$1.79 per barrel;
- AUD and EUR weakened;
- CAD rallied 0.0029.
The wheat market overnight focused on the state of the Soft Red Winter (SRW) crop, and the forecast which continues to put more moisture into the US wheatbelt. A decent percentage of the growing region is expected to received more than 125 millimetres of rain over the next three days, not ideal given the rainfall to date. There was some additional talk around cold conditions throughout Europe, but it seems the US was more worried than the Europeans, given MATIF wheat futures were up only a tickle. The Hard Red Winter wheat tour pegged the Kansas wheat yield at 47.2 bushels per acre versus USDA’s 2018 yield of 38 bushels. Clearly, the rains damaging the SRW belt have been a huge help to the prospects in the Hard Red Winter-wheat belt.
The corn market had its third straight up day – the focus has been on planted area with extensive planting delays but now the conversation is turning to national yield and the subsequent impact to production. The parallels to 2013 season which saw a big jump in prevent plant especially in corn. As long discussed the spec short will remain until we can find a catalyst that warrants short covering – the May WASDE will be released on the 10th – the April figures that will be watched are Corn planted area at 89.1m/ac, harvested acres at 81.7m/ac and yield at 176.4bu/ac. Small downward revisions to these estimates have far reaching impacts on ending stocks
Rain in southeastern Australia has continued to fall, with 50-75mm common throughout central Victoria and southern New South Wales. South Australia and western Victoria were not as lucky, but the focus remains on the longer-term forecast for these areas.
Source: Lachstock Consulting