Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 May 2022

Lachstock Consulting, May 3, 2022
  • Chicago wheat July contract down US0.25 cents per bushel to 1055.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 7.75c/bu to 1098c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 1.75c/bu to 1167.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €2.50/t to €377.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract down $3.75/t to $362/t;
  • Corn July contract down 10c/bu to 803.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract down 39.5c/bu to 1645.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$40.30/t to $1064/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €40.50/t to €802.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$5 to $415/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $4.30/t to $425/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.705.

International

India has been billed as the saviour to the global wheat market’s woes, but reports that its crop had a less-than-perfect end to the growing season have started to gain momentum. However, the level of risk premium baked into US futures has seemingly done the job of constricting export flow. Rain is a doubled-edged sword for the US right now – good for Hard Red Winter wheat,  bad for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat. Given the forecast, it is clear the HRS planting will not reach its potential. Aside from that, and maybe the slow soybean planting due to cold and wet conditions, it is hard to find a weather problem on the globe.

Canola was well and truly caught up in last night’s clean-out. While some of the move can be attributed to profit taking, it is difficult to explain why risk premium in the vegoil space needs to be reduced. The Indonesian palm oil export ban has been absorbed without fanfare, which is interesting, given that palm is the world’s most consumed vegoil, and Indo punches out 35 per cent of global exports. Some are suggesting the ban will only last a month or two,  or until domestic Indonesian cooking-oil prices subside.

Australia

Following offshore markets, current and new-crop wheat values fell about A$5/t.

Port congestion has increased this week with delays increasing in Albany, Esperance, Geraldton, Kwinana and Port Lincoln. Of 30 anchored vessels, only 13 are currently loading.

Clear skies over recent days are forecast to come to an end, with a cold Antarctic blast expected to move over southern Australia later this week causing a mix of snow, hail, rain and blustery winds. It will move through South Australia next Tuesday, before sweeping across Victoria and New South Wales on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

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