Daily Market Wire 3 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 3, 2023

Wheat prices fell another 2 percent. Canola and rapeseed made small gains.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US10 cents per bushel to 637.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 20.5c/bu to 738.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 17c/bu to 784.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €6/t to €234.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$4.25/t to $281.50/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract down 4.5c/bu to 580c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract down 16.75c/bu to 1410.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$4.80/t to $709.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract up €2.75/t to €441/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$1/t to $383/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 33 points to US$0.6663


All sides involved in the Black Sea Grain Initiative are scheduled to meet today, a senior Ukrainian source told Reuters, saying “hopefully there will be results.” Russian officials reiterated there had been no progress in removing what Moscow says are obstacles to its grain and fertiliser exports.
As of April 1st, Russian total wheat stocks amounted to 27.6Mt, according to Rosstat data processed by SovEcon. The numbers are record-high for the beginning of Q2 and exceed the five-year average by 79pc. The stocks have significantly surpassed the average due to the record-high wheat crop and relatively sluggish exports. Rosstat estimates the Russian wheat crop at 104.2Mt, which is 32pc higher than the five-year average. 

SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in July-March at 33.8Mt, which is 10pc higher than average. Overall, SovEcon expects Russia to export 44.4Mt of wheat during the 2022-23 season and notes that the record-high wheat stocks will likely result in a decline in the ruble wheat market in May. However, there are no expectations of significant export growth due to limiting factors such as infrastructure restrictions, exhaustion of individual traders’ quotas, and a limited supply of old crop that is below the recommended price threshold of US$275/t FOB. 

According to a senior Ag Ministry official, Ukraine’s grain exports could plunge to around 26Mt in 2023-24, as production is sharply reduced due to the war. Ukraine has exported 41.6Mt of grain to date in the current marketing year, and shipments are expected to exceed 50Mt by June 30. The official expects new-crop exports to total around 9Mt of wheat and 15Mt of corn.  

Jordan reportedly purchased 60kt milling wheat for $288.50/t C&F for first half of Oct. Algeria bought an undisclosed amount of wheat for $295-296/t C&F for May 16-July 31.



Local markets remain somewhat quiet with growers focused on planting. New crop basis has firmed due to the sustained futures break, although traded volumes are extremely thin. 

Winter crop planting continues amid pockets slowdown given lack of rainfall, with some areas pushing planting depths to find moisture.

There was 4.13Mt of total grain on the shipping stem for April, including 2.9Mt wheat, 586kt barley, 478kt canola and 160kt sorghum. Average vessel wait times were mixed across most ports in Australia. Albany, Brisbane, Geelong, Geraldton and Kwinana saw an increase in wait time whilst Melbourne, Newcastle, Port Kembla and Adelaide saw a decrease. 

The RBA made a surprise rate rise yesterday lifting the official cash rate by 25 basis points from 3.6 per cent to 3.85 per cent. It is the 11th interest rate rise since April 2022, with the cash rate now the highest it has been since April 2012.


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