Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 September 2020

Lachstock Consulting, September 3, 2020

Chicago and Kansas lost ground. Elsewhere agricultural futures strengthened.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US5.75 cents per bushel to 558.25;
  • Kansas wheat December contract was down 6.25c/bu to  479.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 1.25c/bu to 547.5;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.5 to €188;
  • Corn December contract up 0.75c/bu to 358.75;
  • Soybeans November contract up 7.25c/bu to 962;
  • Winnipeg canola November up C$2.40 to C$503.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €1.50/t to €383.75;
  • Brent crude November contract down US$1.15 per barrel to $44.43;
  • Dow Jones index points up 455 points to 29,101;
  • AUD weaker at $0.733;
  • CAD firmer at $1.305;
  • EUR weaker at $1.185.

Markets

Some downward correction on wheat occurred after the recent spike. Chicago closed -5 3/4¢ to 558 1/4¢, KC -6 1/4¢ to 479 1/4¢, while Minny picked up a cent and a quarter to 547.5¢ and Matif was up half a euro.  Corn closed up 3/4¢ while beans gained 7.25¢ (with Winnipeg and Matif both up, $2.4/1.5€ respectively).  Crude took a whack (despite slightly lower than expected inventory figures) as offshore production in North America begins to pick back up after the storm . Futures were down about a buck forty to $41.6 WTI / $44.4 Brent.  FX markets saw a bit of a bounce with the US dollar index up to 92.8, the AUD at 73.3¢, the CAD $1.305, and the EUR $1.185.

We’re starting to see some more firming of opinions and partial squaring of positions across the trade as we look towards next week’s USDA report.  Views on US row crop yields are pessimistic given the stressed state of crops across much of the western corn belt.  Dry weather in parts of the Black Sea region is also starting to attract more attention as markets shift towards New Year ideas. It is still too early to make any call on Black Sea crops with planting just starting, but that won’t stop markets speculating if there is no relief on the forecast maps

 

Global Highlights:

  • Two more probable hurricanes are moving across the Atlantic (Omar and Nana) though neither currently looks set to hit US row crops
  • US ethanol stocks jumped again, by 473,000 barrels, to 20.9 million. July USDA crush figures were released yesterday. While they lag about a month the crush figures confirmed the implied higher crush from weekly ethanol figures. Corn use was up 10pc month-on-month, to 477 million bushels.
  • Egypt’s GASC is tendering again for wheat for delivery early November. Markets generally are expecting to see another wide range of Black Sea, mostly Russian, offers and nothing competitive from the EU or US.  Black Sea markets continue to firm, although there has been more farmer selling reported to start this week
  • US export sales figures are due out again tonight, with expectations up to 2.5Mt of corn and 2Mt of beans. Those higher expectations are driven mostly by the flash sales reports over the week
  • No flashes were released today, although there is talk of another 500,000t of beans sold to China last night
  • Argentine weather maps remain mostly dry across the two-week outlooks, and crop damage continues to build with more fields depleting what moisture reserves remained and falling backwards

Australia:

  • New crop wheat values were up $4-5/t across the boards in most port zones and into domestic homes
  • Barley ended a fraction weaker on the new crop trade, with some support in place, despite the China politics, given competitiveness into other destinations such as Saudi Arabia
  • Canola ended softer by $2-3/t
  • Old crop wheat markets continued to see small volumes moving in the south east, with limited demand in the short term as harvest approaches and consumers look to keep books light
  • Forecasts are calling for higher temperatures into next week, with parts of SA on track to hit the 30s already.  Moisture forecasts remain dry.

 

 

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