Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 April 2021

Lachstock Consulting, April 30, 2021

Wheat markets moved mixed overnight. Corn and canola firmed. Soybeans weakened.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US6.25c/bu to 729c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 2c/bu to 698.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 12.5c/bu to 744.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €8/t to €218.75/t;
  • Corn July contract up 4.25c/bu to 648.25;
  • Soybeans July contract down 11.5c/bu to 1502.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$9.40/t to $842.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €5.25/t to €498.50/t;
  • US dollar index unchanged at 90.6;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.777;
  • CAD firmer at $1.228;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.212;
  • ASX wheat July contract up $5.50/t to $311/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $2/t to $317/t.

International

    With the post-corona recovery still underway, the US President Biden made his first speech to the government there, pushing for more multi-trillion-dollar spending on infrastructure and social programs which has some in the market optimistic about the cash influx from the infrastructure spending

The weekly US export sales report had half million tons of old crop corn and half a million tons of new. The corn figures included a large chunk of unknown destination rolled from old crop to new, and more rolls are rumoured to come. Soybeans export sales were 0.3Mt old crop and 0.4Mt new crop, half of which was to China. Wheat was 0.2Mt old crop and 0.2Mt new crop. All in all, about as expected.  Milo/sorghum sales had an additional two Chinese boats reported.

Rumours about more new crop Chinese demand for both beans and corn have been doing the rounds. No new flashes overnight, but as we’ve noted through the last year there seems to be a fair amount of disregard for the reporting regulations across the Chinese purchases.

Another ASF outbreak in China with reports from the Ag Ministry there confirming cases in Inner Mongolia though, supposedly, it has been contained

The spring wheat weather maps remain depressing with dry outlooks still holding into mid-May. Planting is ongoing across the drought areas but concerns about production impacts continue to expand as the drought holds.

Similarly in South America, there seems to be no relief on the cards for Brazilian safrinha crop areas with more talk shifting down into the 90Mt ranges. The two-week weather maps are as dry as a bone

Black Sea weather maps are also turning somewhat dry on the extended runs, although so far concerns about crop impacts are fairly few and far between with generally good conditions across the winter wheat areas.

Black Sea markets in slow mode as we head into the Orthodox Easter period which will also overlap with May Day celebrations – many will be out of the office through most of next week.

Australia

Local markets took advantage of the sell-off on the boards the other day to take a little bit of a breather with traders attempting to pull bids back but resulted in fairly thin trading.

Rains have been very nicely spread across the WA wheat belt so far, with 20+ mm already towards the south and 10-15mm a little more inland.  Weather maps are still calling for a widespread inch between this set of rain and the showers forecast for early next week.

East coast maps also still favourable, with the forecasts pushing a little further inland across southern NSW along the Riverina region.

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Comments

  1. Ray Marshall, April 30, 2021

    Keep your eyes out for comments by new GRDC CEO Tony Williams recent visit to West Aust saying grain growers are receiving good outcomes from their annual $50 million levy payments to GRDC. There will be contrary statements from growers.

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