Statistics Canada’s crop estimates were released yesterday with Canadian all wheat production estimated at 29.47Mt, down 14pc from 2022-23 and 6pc below the five-year average, it was also below the average pre report estimate of 30.4Mt. The canola crop was pegged at 17.56Mt, slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate but down 6pc from last year and 6pc below the five-year average. As flagged in an earlier update, a 521kt upward revision was made for 2022-23 production and 2021-22 production was revised up by 496kt due to the higher than expected stocks held as of July 31. Barley production is estimated at 7.92Mt, down 21pc from 2022-23 and 15pc below average. Canada’s soybean production is estimated at 6.74Mt, equal to the average pre-report estimate and would be the largest crop produced in five years. Corn production is forecast at a record 14.73Mt, close to the average pre-report estimate.

According to Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry, as at 28 August, 2023-24 cumulative grains exports are at 4.2Mt (4.0Mt previous year), including wheat at 1.8Mt (1.1Mt), barley at 460kt (310kt) and maize 1.9Mt (2.5Mt). 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his US corn and soybean yields, noting impacts from last week’s extreme heat and a “problematic” forecast. Dr Cordonnier lowered his corn yield by 2 bu. per acre to 173 bu. per acre, but raised harvested acreage by 500,000 acres, resulting in a crop forecast of 15.01 billion bushels. He reduced his soybean yield by 1 bu. to 50 bu. per acre and left harvested acres unchanged, resulting in a crop estimate of 4.13 billion bushels. He has a neutral to lower bias toward both crops.
 

Agribusiness consultancy AgRural Brazil reports that as at 24 August, 2022-23 second (safrinha) maize crop harvest in the Centre-South region is estimated at 83pc complete (94pc previous year). There have reportedly been harvest delays due to logistical issues, including insufficient availability of trucks, which added to earlier factors, such as late sowing and high grain humidity. Total maize production forecast at 135.4Mt (130.0Mt Conab). 2023-24 first (full-season) maize sowings estimated at 8pc complete, with many growers in southern states awaiting additional rainfall to start planting 

Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has removed creeping thistle (Cirsium arvense) from its quarantine pest list after first adding it in 2018. Creeping thistle is a perennial species of flowering plant that can be found across countries in the Northern Hemisphere including Canada, the US, Europe and Russia. The removal will increase competition into Vietnam which is a major Australian market. 

The Russian government has extended a temporary ban on the export of canola until 29 February, 2024. 

US private exporters reported the sale of 246,100 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

Local markets were mixed yesterday, with wheat and canola values largely unchanged from the previous trading day; barley continued to firm in SA with bids hitting $340/t track.

August lineups have ended the month with 2.92Mt of total grain on the stem, down from 3.08Mt last week as some vessels roll into September. Wheat is at 1.99Mt down from 2.13Mt. Barley is at 438kt up from 388kt, canola is at 367kt, down from 427kt and sorghum is unchanged at 130kt. Average vessel wait time for all Australian grain ports has improved albeit with a low number of vessels anchored and loading.

The first barley shipment to China since tariffs were lifted departed yesterday carrying 60kt. It loaded at Esperance and Kwinana.