Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 December 2020

Lachstock Consulting, December 30, 2020
US soybean markets rallied 3pc overnight.
  • Chicago wheat March contract up US4.25 cents per bushel to 618.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 8c/bu to 585c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 3.75c/bu to 580.5c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1/t to €212;
  • Corn March contract up 9.5c/bu to 466c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 38.75c/bu to 1296c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$7.60/t to $636;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €3.50/t to €418;
  • Brent crude February up US$0.23 per barrel to $51.09;
  • Dow Jones index down 68 points to 30,336 points;
  • AUD stronger at $0.761;
  • CAD stronger at $1.281;
  • EUR stronger at $1.225.

International

In the words of a somewhat underappreciated song – there’s nothing like the bean!  Or at least according to today’s markets – soybeans pushing new highs and settling up 38 3/4¢ (H) while corn was dragged along for a 9.5¢ gain (Matif ended up 3.5¢, Winnipeg +$7.6).  Lots of various justifications out there, with mixed excuses about higher meal demand, Argy reluctance to sell, weather worries, and of course many claiming in retrospect that there’s been more new money stepping in on the bull side.  Wheat picked up 4 1/4¢ on Chicago, +8¢ on KC, and +3 3/4¢ on Minny (with Matif up a euro on the earlier close).  Macros sold off after more conflicts over the expanded stimulus in the US, with the DOW off 68 points.  Crude firmed on the dollar weakness, up a quarter to $48 WTI / $51.1 Brent as the dollar hits 89.9.  The AUD is trading up to 76.1¢, the CAD $1.281, and the EUR $1.225.
N.B. CBOT markets close at the regular time after the US day session on Thursday and are closed through New Year’s day – reopening with the regular Sunday night session. 
  • US political showdowns continue to impact the macro market, with the US Senate blocking an attempt by Democratic politicians there to bypass the normal voting process through “unanimous consent”.  It remains a messy situation though, with more Republican senators coming out in favor of the measure, and Sanders delaying the attempt to override the veto on the defence spending bill.
  • Argentina’s strikes continue, with no agreement made last night – another meeting is expected but no date yet set.  As noted all terminals are impacted by the tug part of the strike, and vessel backlogs have continued to build (one estimate overnight suggested that 10+ wheat boats are in the mix, most of which are to Brazil).
  • Algeria’s OAIC tender has offers due tonight (Wednesday there) and we should start seeing results trickle out just before the new year.
  • Argentine crop estimates continue to slowly slide lower as dry weather holds – the latest model runs have started trimming off some of the moisture for central soybean areas into next week
  • Warm weather back on the maps for the Black Sea, though still on the dry side.  There’s still some snow across central Russia and the Volga, but melting temperatures an ongoing flag for winter kill risks
  • Global cash markets have been fairly quiet with the short trading week.  All eyes on the board today clearly, but beyond that we’re mostly hearing talk of tire kicking for mid-year 2021 shipments in both corn and beans (speculation about it being Chinese demand) but nothing yet happening.
Australia:
  • Good rains across central NSW have seen 20-30+ mm as the storm moves towards the coast.
  • With the moisture there’s been a surge in new sorghum plantings in Queensland (even as early crops in the Downs start to come off)
  • The BOM is still calling for some more moisture into the weekend, with chances for a widespread 25-30+ mm event across NSW and QLD cropping areas
  • Local markets very quiet in the short week
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