Daily Market Wire 30 January 2023

Lachstock Consulting January 30, 2023

Markets moved less than one per cent on Friday, some weaker, some firmer.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US2.5 cents per bushel to 750c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract up 4.5c/bu at 869.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract up 3.5c/bu to 921.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €2.75/t to €286/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.75/t to $305/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract up 0.5c/bu to 683c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 14c/bu to 1509.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract up C$1.60/t to $807.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €1.75/t to €544.25/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$1.50/t to $373.50/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$307.50/t;
  • AUD dollar was unchanged at US$0.711.


Ukraine Grain Association (UGA) told Reuters that, owing to a drop in area linked to the ongoing conflict, it expected total grain and oilseeds production to decline for a second consecutive year, to about 50Mt (67Mt previous year). Ukraine 2023-24 wheat production was projected to remain below 16Mt (20Mt previous year), and corn was pegged at 18Mt (22Mt-23Mt). Soybean and rapeseed production were expected to be little changed year on year, at around 3Mt each. According to the head of UGA, this outlook was highly tentative and represents best case scenarios, with production levels potentially falling more sharply depending on weather and financial circumstances on farms. 

Ukraine Agriculture Ministry said farmers had harvested 3.8Mha of corn which accounted for 90pc of area planted. Corn production was estimated at 25.2Mt, up from the 23.5Mt harvested by 12 January 2023.

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, said Washington was working to increase exports of Russian and Ukrainian grains and fertilisers to the countries in dire need under the Black Sea export initiative. “We are working at every level with the World Food Program as you know to speed both food and fertiliser to countries that would normally be consumers of Ukraine and, frankly, Russia’s output, to ensure that they can plant this year,” Ms Nuland said at hearings of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported a forecast storm was anticipated to bring much needed rainfall to large parts of the country this week and should aid planting progress. While recent rains were providing some relief, rainfall was somewhat patchy and uneven. For the week ending 26 January, soybean crop conditions rated 46pc fair/excellent (40pc previous week, 78pc previous year). Its soybean production forecast was 41.0Mt. Recent rainfall halted a further deterioration of crops. However, significant crop losses were expected in early plantings and second soybean lots because of high temperatures and lack of moisture during November, December and most of January.  Corn crop condition ratings were 61pc fair/excellent (53pc previous week, 71pc previous year). Farmers were intensifying work to make the most of the improved conditions following recent rains, despite being in the last weeks of the planting window. Rainfall was most beneficial for late-sown crops but was deemed too late to improve conditions for early-planted fields, with production forecast at 44.5Mt.

According to India’s Farm Ministry, wheat planting rose to 34.19Mha as of 27 January, up from 34.06m hectares last year. The area planted to winter pulses increased to 16.54Mha (16.45Mha previous year) and oilseeds were at 10.83Mha (10.05Mha previous year). Sowing operations are continuing in some parts of the country.

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) reportedly purchased 68,000t feed wheat thought to be sourced from Australia in a private deal on Friday for an estimated US$344/t c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading for May-June shipment. 


Friday’s local markets were relatively flat. The ASX eastern wheat March contract settled at A$373.50/t. Offshore export demand picked up a touch over the week. Iraq purchased 150,000t Aussie wheat. China and Korea were sniffing around for feed wheat. 

Showers are forecast to continue today and into the week across eastern NSW and southern Qld with totals ranging from 15-50mm over the next 4 days.


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