Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 30, 2024

Markets eased more than 1  percent. Winnipeg canola shed 2 1/2 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US6.75c/bu to 593.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 6.5c/bu to 618.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 10.25c/bu to 693.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €1/t to €213.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 5.25c/bu to 450.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 11.25c/bu to 1205c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$15.30/t to C$614.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €6/t to €426/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $369.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 33 points to US$0.6612

International

Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries announced on Friday that it had made the first steps towards being able to export wheat to China. A press release from the Ministry read “In an important step for Argentine exports, the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) included Argentine companies authorised to export wheat in the Online Quarantine Registration System of Establishments authorized to export vegetables, animals, and their products that enter China”. 

According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crush fell 29pc in 2023 to 27Mt, the lowest level since 2004 reflecting the impact of drought on production. More than 36pc of crushing in Argentina was made with soybeans imported through the temporary import regime, which was a record high volume and came mostly from Brazil and Paraguay. 

The European Commission has revised upward its estimate of EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2023-24 to 19.1Mt from the 18.4Mt forecast in December. Production was bumped by 0.2Mt to 125.9Mt (125.8Mt previous year) and imports were increased by 0.5Mt to 7Mt (9.6Mt previous year). Barley production was revised up by 0.1Mt to 47.4Mt, still a 12-year low. 

A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China property developer Evergrande yesterday, more than two years after the company first defaulted. Evergrande was once China’s biggest property developer but is now more than US$300 billion in debt. 

Iran’s SLAL reportedly seeks 120,000t feed barley from the EU and the Black Sea and 200,000t soymeal from Brazil or Argentina, for Mar/Apr shipment. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer seeks 120,000t milling wheat from optional origins, for Apr/May shipment.

Australia

Eastern states prices kicked off the week with a softer tone with canola values seeming to wear the brunt of the offshore sell off, settling back down to A$625/t track. ASX March 24 wheat ended the day down $2.50/t at $369.50/t. 

The BOM Climate Driver Update issued on 23 January noted that El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now declining. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive. It is expected to weaken to neutral levels over the coming fortnight. Despite some international models calling a La Niña event for 2024 the BOM has said it is too early to call.

 

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