Weather:
Dry and cold through the US east coast – lndiana is set to fall to -30°C across the state, with Texas also falling to near record lows.
Seems the weather in the US is being mirrored in Russia with Rostov heading back to record low temps if the forecast is to be believed.
The forecast in Argy looks hot – too hot given the moisture levels through the row crop belt.
Markets
Risk off overnight with precious metals getting hit by a raft of profit taking.
The lower USD has had an immediate impact across the ag contracts with punchy export sales – something that had fallen off in recent weeks after the hot start. Japan, Mexico and Nigeria all featuring.
China were featured buyers of US sorghum, Japan were buyers of US corn
AUD has found footing in the mid 70’s – interestingly, barley has been able to maintain export margin which should continue to feed the export path.
Australian Day Ahead
We are still getting used to the new normal with the Aussie in the 70’s. So far, this has coincided with a belting of hot weather, and the growers would no doubt be looking at the SOI outlook.
With the Australian canola vessel being released in China, this may encourage some more demand, unfortunately Canada has been let back in at the same time. Based on the numbers, Aussie is still slightly cheaper.

Wheat

Chicago +5.5c, Kansas +4.75c, Matif +€1.25
Wheat futures extended gains with momentum driven by short covering and heightened winterkill risk in the Black Sea, where extreme cold forecasts for Ukraine have raised crop concerns.
Chicago and Kansas rallied strongly intraday, making new highs before settling higher, while Matif followed with modest gains and Russian cash held around US$231.
US export demand remains a clear positive, with weekly sales of 558k tons well above expectations and cumulative shipments now at 88% of the USDA full-year forecast only two-thirds into the marketing year.
HRW and HRS led class sales, with Japan, Mexico and Nigeria the key buyers.
France’s Rouen port loadings eased week on week, though Egypt signalled a sharp increase in domestic wheat area and output expectations for 2026 as it raises procurement prices to support local supply and reduce imports.
Structurally, Chicago spreads continue to flirt with contract storage thresholds, keeping pressure on shorts amid elevated volatility and broader risk-off conditions.

Other grains and oilseeds

Corn +0.2 percent, Soybeans -0.3pc, Matif canola -0.25pc
Corn was two-sided but finished slightly higher, supported by another strong export showing of 1.65m tons, matching trade ideas and easily exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA targets.
Demand remains broad-based with Japan, Mexico, Colombia and Spain active, while combined sales over the past two weeks have been robust.
South American supply remains the key watchpoint, with Argentine corn conditions declining for a fourth straight week and forecast rains pushed back, keeping weather risk in play despite
Argentina remaining the cheapest FOB origin globally. Soybeans underperformed, making new highs early before selling off as meal and oil failed to sustain gains, pulling March crush margins lower.
Argentine soybean conditions also weakened again, keeping upcoming rainfall forecasts critical.
In oilseeds, sentiment improved after China cleared at least one Australian canola cargo through customs, with crushing expected to begin, marking a tentative revival of trade flows after years of disruption.
That said, renewed access for both Australian and Canadian canola points to increased competition longer term despite near-term support.

Macro

AUD -0.8pc, Dow -0.7pc, Crude +US$2.21
Markets shifted decisively into risk-off mode, led by sharp volatility across metals, equities and FX.
Gold and silver swung violently after record highs, while equity markets sold off, particularly in technology, driving haven demand into Treasuries and pushing yields lower across the curve.
Commodity currencies reversed sharply, with the Australian dollar erasing gains as the US dollar stabilized after recent weakness.
Crude oil surged toward $70 a barrel on rising Middle East tensions after renewed US warnings toward Iran, reinforcing inflation concerns even as bond markets rallied.
Options markets reflected elevated stress, with higher VIX levels, negative gamma in equities and heavy positioning in gold-linked products.
Overall, macro uncertainty around geopolitics, currencies, inflation and policy is reinforcing volatility, a backdrop that continues to favor defensive positioning and underpin grains relative to other risk assets.

Local

A little softer for cereals in the west, with wheat back to A$318 and barley $320, while canola was steady at $780 FIS Albany.
Steady in the east yesterday with canola around $751, wheat $325 and barley $304 track Geelong.
Faba beans have lost some ground recently as export programs fill and the AUD provides headwinds; bids are around $440 delivered Geelong/Melbourne, back from ~$460.
Protein is scarce in Vic, particularly H1, with demand from box exports and some bulk programs pulling higher-end protein north.