Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 July 2019

Lachstock Consulting, July 30, 2019
Grains futures markets were mostly firmer on Monday night.
  • Chicago wheat September contract up 7.5 cents per bushel to 503.5
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 4.5c to 436.5c,
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 8c to 532.5c,
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €0.5 per tonne to €175.75;
  • Corn September contract up 2.5c to 417;
  • Soybeans August contract up 2.5c to 885.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$1.10/t to $449.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €3.5 to €376.25;
  • Brent crude September contract up $0.25 per barrel to $63.70;
  • Dow Jones up 29 points to 27,211 approx;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6890c;
  • CAD weaker at $1.317;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.114

Market news

Wheat’s back up again to start the week – will we hold the gains tomorrow? Early overnight session moves are back ~3¢ from the day session close.  On the day though, Chicago wheat picked up 7.5¢ to 503.5¢, KC +4.5¢ to 436.5¢, Minny +8¢ to 532.5¢, and matif was up half a euro to 175.75€ on the earlier close.  Corn and beans both gained two and a half cents to 417¢ and 885.75¢, while Matif rapeseed was off 3.5€ to 376.25€ and Winnipeg canola down a buck ten to $449.4.  Crude oil continued to firm amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the middle east, with WTI up 67¢ to $56.9/barrel and Brent up a quarter to $63.7.  The Dow picked up 29 points, and the remains weak against the USD – trading just over 69¢ overnight but breaking under (68.9¢ as of writing) this morning.  The EUR is at $1.114, the CAD at $1.317, and the GBP has dropped to $1.219 amid ongoing no-deal brexit worries.  We do also note that the US Fed will be meeting again mid-week, with some expectations for a new rate cut.

China/US trade talks are back on again (starting today) but overall expectations remain muted – and we note that protests continue in Hong Kong after China called for a “forceful” crackdown on “evil” prodemocracy groups there. In the lead up to new negotiations with the US, Chinese state run media was lauding Chinese purchases of US soybeans after the last talks – though they appear to be claiming credit for multiple times the actual business (and on sales that were done earlier).  No new flashes as of yet.

Updated crop progress figures in the US showed corn there up 1% good/excellent (although central corn belt states remain well below “normal” levels) and beans unchanged (shifting one point between good and excellent).  Progress remains well behind normal in all row crops though, and there are also a few worries about the dry conditions starting to pop up in spots (noting that this same weather has also been the driver behind the recent positive outlooks there).  Winter wheat harvest was up to 86% complete, while spring wheat came in down 3% good/excellent (amid the ongoing dry wave across the norther plains – a follow up rain is dearly needed there).

Australia

Back in Australia, domestic grain markets are likely to be very quiet this week as the AGIC grains conference is on in Melbourne on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.  Lachstock will be attending – and happy to catch up with anyone there.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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