Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 July 2020

Lachstock Consulting, July 30, 2020

Markets were mixed.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US9.25c/bu to 532.75c
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 9c/bu to 445.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 4.75c/bu to 511c;
  • Corn September contract down 4.5c/bu to 315.5;
  • Soybeans August contract down 5.25c/bu to 891.5;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$3.60/t to $491.20;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1/t to €181.75;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €4.50/t to €380;
  • Brent crude September contract up US$0.53 per barrel to $43.75;
  • Dow Jones index up 160 points to 26,540;
  • AUD firmer at $0.7188;
  • CAD firmer at $1.3338;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1790.

Markets

Wheat markets finally found a bid overnight with rumours about export sales on HRW kicking the party off – Chicago was up 9.5¢ to 533¢, KC +8 3/4¢ to 445.5¢, Minny +4 3/4¢ to 511¢, and Matif was up a euro on the earlier close.  Corn dropped 4.5¢ to 315.5¢ and beans were off the same to 892 1/4¢ (WInnipeg picked up $3.6, Matif was off 4.5€).  Crude oil has picked up to $41.3 WTI / $43.8 Brent and the DOW is up 160 points.  The AUD hit 71.9¢ (though is off slightly this morning to 71.8¢), the CAD $1.333, and the EUR $1.179 as the dollar index continues to fall.  The US Fed was out with the regular comments on interest rates and policy – mostly a repeat of the lsat update, with probable long horizons for low rates.

Wheat lifts on sales talk

Word around the market is that several boats of HRW were sold to export destinations but unclear yet as to whether it was China, Mexico, or Brazil.  Likewise more SRW sales were rumoured.  While regular export sales figures will be out tonight, but won’t cover any sales booked in the last few days, although flash reports would cover them.  The Russian government pegged the wheat harvest at about a third complete. Markets continue to fine tune ideas on the Russian crop, most variances now relate to spring wheat conditions.  Market consensus is also shifting towards something like a 30 million tonnes French crop number, and everyone is worried, once again, about Argentina where weather outlooks are increasingly concerning.

Big crop, corn demand strong

US row crop weather remains positive with more mild temperatures on the maps.  Field reports also remain positive and some are beginning to talk a new record corn yield.  Record or not, the risk of a “big” crop has very much been weighing on markets for the last few weeks and without a demand story that seems likely to continue.  Farmer sales have mostly dried up, but commercials are preparing for the ex-harvest logistical squeeze which will see some grain moving into the system.  On the other side, ethanol figures were up again, +50,000 barrels per day, confirming increased corn demand.

Australia

Local market is still focused on weather outlooks.  Forecasts continue to call for some widespread east coast moisture next week, but overall accumulation for most cropping areas looks to be light.  Bids eased off yesterday for old season. New season bids remained mostly unchanged and some are reporting more liquidity hitting on the east coast.  New season canola was up another $2-3/t, following the board moves.

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