Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 30, 2021

All wheat prices lifted approximately 2pc overnight. Canola fell 1/2pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US16.5c/bu to 705.25c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 15c/bu to 674.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 14.75c/bu to 918.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €4.50/t to €220.75/t;
  • Corn September contract was up 8.75c/bu to 558c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 15c/bu to 1385.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$4.60/t to $878.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €3.25/t to €531.75/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.4 to 91.9;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.740;
  • CAD firmer at $1.245;
  • EUR firmer at $1.189;
  • ASX wheat September contract up $7.70/t to A$316/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $3/t to $315/t.

International

Grains bounced back higher again across the board with wheat leading the rally up early in the session before correcting down slightly later in the day – Chicago wheat ended +16.5¢, KC +15¢, Minny +14 3/4¢ (down a dime from mid-session highs), and Matif +4.5€ on the earlier close.  Corn was up 8 3/4¢ and beans +15¢ (Matif -3.25€, Winnipeg -$4.6).  Crude oil has jumped another buck to $73.5 WTI / $45.9 Brent and the DOW gained 154 points.  The USD has slipped to 91.9 after the Fed comments yesterday, with the AUD bouncing back to 73.9¢, the CAD $1.244, and the EUR $1.189.

The North Dakota spring wheat crop tour yield estimate came in at 29.1 bu/acre, down from prior year averages of 43.6bu/ac. Implied production levels for Hard Red Spring wheat, from this result and mixed with other appraisals of Minnesota/Montana crops and abandonment ideas, work into the range 290-300 million bushels (mbu), versus USDA recent forecast 305mbu.

Canadian crop ideas also continue to slide lower, with talk into the low 20s on wheat and further cuts on canola.

Russian crop ideas also continue to slide, with more consolidation sub-78 million tonnes as winter wheat yields drop off and spring wheat conditions remain poor. Harvest is now on pace with last year. Hot/dry weather is leading to rapid harvest progress.

Flash export sales had 132,000t of beans sold to unknown destination. Most are expecting it was Chinese business.

Regular export sales figures had 0.515Mt wheat, 0.5Mt new crop corn. Old crop corn saw nett 115,000t cancelled, led by two boats of China destination cancelled. There was 0.3Mt beans sold, 0.002Mt milo fresh sales and another ‘unknown’ switching to destination China.

The African Swine Fever virus was reported in the Dominican Republic, raising concerns about a possible jump into North American pigs.  This is the first case reported in the North American area in fifty-plus years.

US Corn Belt weather maps are adding forecast rain across the eastern Belt into mid-August, boosting some thoughts on bean potentials there, although more northern and generally western areas are not as well off in the latest weather runs.

Australia

Local grains markets traded a fiver firmer yesterday, with liquidity continuing to dribble out and a little more new crop selling reported in WA.

WA rains continued to add moisture across the wheat belt yesterday, with another 5-15 mm reported across most of the area.

 

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