Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 30, 2022

Values were mixed. Wheat tended easier and the oilseeds tended firmer. Brent crude eased 1 ½ pc. Soybean meal gained 1 ½ pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US6 cents per bushel to 930c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 1c/bu to 991.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 12.25c/bu to 1028.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1.75/t to €358.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat September contract up $0.50/t to $379/t;
  • Corn September contract down 5.75c/bu to 664c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 15.75c/bu to 1478.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$1.50/t to $892.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €16.25/t to €701.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$420/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $1/t to $441/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.687.

International

Wednesday was a busy information day for the market ahead of the all-important USDA June 30 stocks in all positions and planted area reports. It also had to digest the massive GASC tender which was interesting given that the information could be viewed in a number of ways. There was hardly any Russian wheat shown which further supports the idea that getting wheat out of Russia isn’t going to be plain sailing. Leading consultancy and Black Sea market analyst SovEcon thinks it will be fine. It increased its Russian export projection to 42.6 million tonnes (Mt), but with GASC offers dominated by French and Romanian the market bulls are concerned Russian wheat is not actually that available. Bears will focus on the idea that the wheat is there, just hard to offer in an October tender when you do not know what the tax system is doing.

The report tonight will be a biggie for corn and beans. As we drift into the release the market is growing increasingly concerned that we are going to miss a bunch of soybean acres. Beans have been sneaking higher although the latest weather updates continue to add in moisture in the 6-10 day window which would be just what the doctor ordered from a production perspective.

Argentinian weather remains a challenge for the wheat growing regions. Rains Saturday and next week should improve moisture slightly in northeast areas, but dryness will remain extensive in much of the belt. The USDA currently predicts a 20Mt wheat crop in Argentina. Offsetting this is the bumper crop in Bulgaria which could export as much as 5Mt wheat this year.

Sweden and Finland are on track to join NATO as Turkey (yes the same guys that are negotiating to buy a bunch of wheat from Russia) dropped their opposition. A big part of the rhetoric at the beginning of the Russian invasion was centred around Putin’s displeasure with being surrounded by NATO members. Finland makes this significantly worse given this adds another 1,300km of NATO/Russian direct borders.

Australia

Local markets were mixed across the day. Current crop wheat values were yet again relatively unchanged but caught a bid late in the day in Vic and WA. New crop drifted a touch lower in Victoria while South Australian new crop wheat markets held their premium with grower bids at $450/t port. Barley and canola markets are very ho hum.

Supply chain woes continue to work against exporters. There are reports of breakdowns in eastern Australia at the ports of Melbourne and Kembla which will likely cause significant loading delays.

The forecast for rain starting tomorrow is building for Qld and NSW with a widespread 5-25mm expected for most with the higher totals expected in the east.

 

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