Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 30, 2021

Wheat markets closed mixed in overnight trading, while row crops softened and canola posted gains.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US3.5c/bu to 616.75c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 1.25c/bu to 569.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 3.25c/bu to 610.75c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €4/t to €210.75;
  • Corn May contract down 5.75c/bu to 546.75c;
  • Soybeans May contract down 7.5c/bu to 1393c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$4.70/t to $756.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €7/t to €513.25;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 92.9;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.763;
  • CAD firmer at $1.257;
  • EUR firmer at $1.189;
  • ASX wheat May contract up A$2.80/t to $280;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $2.30/t to $290.

International

Wheat markets printed fresh lows overnight before uncovering some buying ahead of Wednesdays USDA reports.
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be released on Wednesday in the US, and will provide its first official estimates on corn, soybeans, spring wheat and sorghum area for 2021.  This report is normally all about the row crops, and the planting intentions and area pie will drive fair value in corn and beans; however, wheat will have one eye on the outcome as well. With the exception of Europe and the spring wheat areas of the US and Canada, it is hard to find a reason to be bullish wheat as a standalone.

The Kansas weekly crop progress reports indicated conditions were improving, with 50 per cent of the wheat crop rated as good to excellent, up from 45pc last week.

Russian cash posted its fourth consecutive week of lower prints. Depending on what part of the calendar is looked at, Russian cash values are now more than USD$20/t off the highs amid better new-crop prospects and some indications that demand is shrinking.

The Ever Given has refloated and the Suez Canal is now unblocked. About 12pc of global trade goes through the 190-kilometre Suez Canal. German insurer Allianz has predicted the cost to global trade will be around US$6-$10 billion per week. At the peak, S&P Global Platts estimated 320 ships were waiting, impacting 26 million barrels of crude oil.

Australia

Local current-crop markets drifted lower yesterday across the boards as we saw values off another A$2-3/t.  There is currently a lack of liquidity due to growers focusing on planting, and this should continue for the next two months.

Western Australia remains dry, which could be the bullish weather story for Australia. However, it is still early in the planting window, and there is no need to panic.

Sorghum quality is still a bit of a unknown story through the northern summer-crop area, and eyes are on the impact of the recent rain and flooding.

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