Russia continued to pound Kyiv yesterday morning, only hours after their significant overnight attack. Russia has launched 16 attacks on Kyiv this month, but this was the first daytime strike in many weeks. Ukraine said it shot down all 11 of the missiles that Russia fired and there were no reports of casualties. However flaming debris from the intercepted missiles landed in residential areas in central Kyiv. 

The European Commission is reportedly considering extending the temporary ban on grain imports from Ukraine into five neighbouring states following their decision on Thursday to extend the duty-free import regime for Ukraine for another year. “With Ukraine, the adoption of the new autonomous trade measures for another year, we have a legal basis indeed for a possible extension of exceptional safeguards,” Executive Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference “We have signaled the Commission’s readiness to make an extension with the five state members concerned, and we are in discussion with those member states and Ukraine on this topic”.  

Global commodity markets have a lot on their plate. Despite a laundry list of compelling fundamentals, the speculators remain short. While a near record US wheat drought couldn’t bust them out maybe corn holds the key. The US balance sheet can move from a feast to a famine quickly and a 180bu/ac yield becomes extremely important. If the yield were to land over that number, then the balance sheets would work, under and rationing would be required – it is that complicated. Yes, China remains quiet, which is fuel for both the bull and bear. Clearly the lack of demand has the bears pointing fingers but there is an underlying assumption that demand by China will return – build it and they will come. 

The local markets started the week sluggish, with wheat and barley values largely unchanged. Canola showed some current crop gains of $15-18/t which saw growers chip out some more stock for sale.

Australian Crop Forecasters pegged 2023-24 wheat production at 27.9mmt, barley at 10.5mmt. “We’ve got total winter-crop area largely unchanged after a good start in most states saw seeding start early,” ACF senior insights manager James Maxwell said. “Wheat and barley areas are similar to last season, but canola area is back 7 percent, in part due to lower prices but also the drier outlook.” ACF has used 10-year average yields to generate production forecasts. Mr Maxwell said production appears to have some downside based on the forecasts indicating below-average in-crop rainfall.