Daily market wire 30 October 2017

Lachstock Consulting, October 30, 2017

Overnight markets:

Lower for grains, mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was down -4.5c to 427.25c,
  • Kansas wheat down -3c to 425.25c,
  • corn down -1.75c to 348.75c,
  • Soybean up 4c to 986.5c,
  • Winnipeg Canola up 2.90$C to 519.2$C,
  • Matif canola down -0.25€ to 370€.
  • The Dow Jones up 33.32 to 23434.19,
  • Crude Oil up 0.20c to 54.1c,
  • AUD down to 0.767c,
  • CAD up to 1.282c, (AUDCAD 0.983)
  • EUR was down to 1.160c (AUDEUR 0.660).


Wheat finished softer with a strong USD combining with limited fundamentals to see futures looking to test recent lows for the majority of the session. Implied volatiity in December Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures went out at 16.62 per cent (pc). Wheat is low on fresh news, demand is consistent, but the real issue going forward will come from new crop acres. Russian values were slightly softer as the Ruble fell sharply, down 1.4pc at one stage before recovering to finish with only small losses. The weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) report had SRW at +101,100 vs 99,400 contracts; Hard Red Winter at -16,300 vs. -11,800 contracts and Spring wheat at +1200 vs 2400 contracts.


Corn a fraction lower in a lackluster session that featured a US2.75 cents/bushel session trading range. Corn COT came in at -213,800 vs. -203,200 contracts last week. Black Sea corn yields are surprising to the downside, but this doesn’t change the fact that we have a lot of unharvested US crop to come. Old crop US and South American stock, where prices remain low, is plentiful, regardless of the Black Sea issues.


Soybeans managed slight gains in a low range session. Brazilian weather prospects have improved, but the market is still lacking offer side conviction, given the ongoing flooding issues in Argentina. Soymeal was close to unchanged while oil rallied 34 points. A private export sale of 238,000t was announced to China by the USDA. The weekly COT had the bean position at +2100 vs. +30,500 contracts last week.


Canola managed another strong finish, closing very close to technical resistance at Can$520/t. The USdollar index rallied 1.2% which improved crush export pricing for Canadian seed and oil.


Aussie weather forecast features some minor rainfall in NSW and Victoria (5-10mm), while southern and central QLD could receive 10-25mm, which would be a welcome addition to summer crop profiles. Cash markets are light on in small volumes as traders await harvest selling.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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