International

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR revised its 2024-25 Russian total grain production forecast down 0.5Mt to 124.5Mt reflecting damage to crops in eastern regions due to waterlogging. Wheat, at 81.8Mt, represented 0.4Mt of the cut. It forecast 2024-25 (Jul/Jun) total exports at 53Mt, including wheat at 44Mt. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised its 2024-25 canola production forecast up by 0.4Mt, to 19Mt (19.2m previous year), with consumption up 0.8Mt at 12.2Mt (11.5Mt) and ending stocks up 0.3Mt to 2.5Mt (3.1Mt). 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 26 Sept, 2024-25 maize plantings were 11pc complete (7pc previous year) with sowing impacted by low soil moisture in Cordoba, with more rain needed over the coming weeks for planting intentions to be realised. Wheat condition rated at 68pc good/excellent (71pc previous week, 73pc previous year), with rain in southern regions maintaining good yield potential. 

The weekly Saskatchewan crop report noted heavy rainfall delayed harvest throughout the province, but helped boost soil moisture. 2024-25 harvest was 79pc complete (91pc previous year), including barley at 91pc (94pc), spring wheat at 85pc (96pc) and canola at 56pc complete (80pc). 

Canadian Grain Commission data shows cumulative 2024-25 (Aug/Jul) wheat exports at 2.26Mt (-8pc year on year), while canola exports at 1.68Mt, were up significantly from the 493kt exported over the same period last year. 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 23 Sept, 2024-25 maize harvest was 1pc complete (10pc previous year, 15pc five-year avg), with conditions rated 79pc good/excellent (80pc previous week, 82pc previous year). 2025-26 common wheat sowing estimated to be 1pc complete (1pc avg), durum at 1pc (0pc) and winter barley at 2pc complete (1pc).

Australia

Canola bids worked lower to end the week in Western Australia, losing $5/t from Thursday’s gains to be bid around $770/t FIS. GM was bid $705/t. WA wheat bids were up a little to end the week at around $357/t while barley was at $309/t. The grand final public holiday in Victoria on Friday made for a quiet east coast market. Darling Downs delivered markets are currently bid $310/t barley and $325/t wheat, January delivery.

Weekly rainfall totals were mostly disappointing for WA, SA and Vic. Southern/central NSW picked up 10-25mm, with parts of northern and southeast Qld picking up 15-50mm. There were some showers overnight in SA and Vic and more rain on the 8-day forecast but most areas are tipped to only get 5-25mm.