Markets

Daily Market Wire 31 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 31, 2021

North American futures settled between 1pc and 2pc lower, weather markets trimming prices on hurricane-related logistics worries in the US Gulf.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US9c/bu to 723.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 11.5c/bu to 712.5;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 8c/bu to 909.75c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract unchanged at €246.75/t;
  • Corn December contract was down 11c/bu to 542.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 20c/bu to 1303.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$11.10 to $901.60;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €2.50/t to €574/t;
  • US dollar index unchanged at 92.7;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.730;
  • CAD firmer at $1.261;
  • EUR firmer at $1.181;
  • ASX wheat September contract down A$1/t to $360/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $350/t.

International

Hurricane Ida hit the NOLA (New Orleans Louisiana) area in the US. There were plenty of flood headlines. Barge and boat movements indefinitely were halted until the storm and flood impacts subside.  Damage to a Cargill terminal will take some time to clean up and interrupted movements will delay grain export flows.

The StatCan crop report last night estimated this year’s canola crop production at 14.7Mt (19.5Mt previous year), combined wheat 23.0Mt (35.2Mt previous year) of which durum was a whisker under 4Mt, down from 6.6Mt previous year.

The market is treating the StatCan production forecasts as the possible top end of production outcomes. Many are anticipating that as harvest wraps up next month the final outcomes will be lower.

Weekly US crop progress had corn condition rated 60pc good-to-excellent, beans 56pc, and milo 58pc.  Corn harvest progress was pegged at 50pc complete in Texas with other southern states also starting to rapidly push forward. Spring wheat was estimated 88pc harvested nationally after the recent weather.

Weekly export inspections were mediocre, 0.3Mt wheat, 0.56Mt corn and 0.38Mt beans. One boat of milo was loaded to China.

On the upside, a flash sale (so business done last week) had 256,000t new season beans sold to China.

New season (safra) corn plantings in Brazil are picking up, reported at 5% complete the other day.  As always most of the crop is safrinha, with the safra plantings focused on beans.

Egypt’s GASC bought three boats of wheat – two Romanian and one Ukrainian about US$340/t C&F (including costings), about $10/t higher than last tender.  Russian offers were $10-15/t higher than alternatives.

Australia

Local wheat markets were up another couple of bucks yesterday, albeit in quiet trade and with little origination business happening. Most growers appear happy to wait before making further sales.

Weather remains in focus amid warmer temperatures and more chance of rain.

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