Markets

Daily Market Wire 31 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 31, 2022

Tuesday turned cheaper, Chicago wheat giving back 3pc of previous day 4pc gains; rapeseed eased 3pc and canola firmed a fraction. Brent crude reversed previous day gains, closing down 5pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US22.5 cents per bushel to 820.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 14.75c/bu to 897.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 12.75c/bu to 920.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €7/t to €322.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $1.75/t to $314/t;
  • Corn December contract down 5.75c/bu to 677.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 5.25c/bu to 1432.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was up C$5.30/t to $843.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €18.75/t to €602.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$10/t to $410/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$315/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.685.

International

Paris-based Agritel division of Argus Media calls a “catastrophic” corn harvest in France this year at 10.8Mt, the lowest in more than 20 years, as drought affects crops across the continent. Common wheat production forecast was raised by 200,000t to 33.6Mt, 1.3Mt below the five-year average. It was 35.4Mt last year.

Germany’s Ag. Ministry announced grain and rapeseed crop conditions are better than expected, despite recent hot and dry weather, although maize production prospects may have been negatively impacted. 2022/23 grain production was forecast at 43.2Mt (+2pc y/y), incl. winter wheat at 22.0Mt (+5pc) Maize output was projected at 3.5Mt (-22pc). Rapeseed production was seen at 4.3Mt (+22pc).

Russia’s SovEcon has raised 2022/2 wheat exports forecast  by 0.2Mt, to 43.1Mt, which compares to 39.1Mt previous year.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry predicts 2023/24 winter wheat area at 3.8Mha (4.6Mha). Barley acreage expected to fall by 20pc y/y, while rapeseed area could remain unchanged. Maize area may also fall y/y, and could be replaced by soybeans or sunflower seeds.

Japan’s MAFF is seeking to buy 95,497 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders closing on Thursday.

Jordan reportedly purchased about 60,000t hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday at US$376.50/t c&f for January 2023.

US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters on Tuesday that an estimated 1million acres (404.7k hectares) were taken out of the US Conservation Reserve Program, or CRP, and will return to agricultural production in 2023.

Australia

Trade new crop wheat and barley markets were firmer.  Grower bids remained relatively unchanged east coast. WA wheat multi grades were $5-7/t stronger.

Rainfall totals between 10-50mm have been received in the past week over the far south of WA, southern SA, most of Vic, inland western and south east NSW and in parts of south west Qld. Minor to moderate flooding continues along inland rivers of NSW, including the Darling, the Macquarie, the Murrumbidgee and the Lachlan rivers. Minor flooding continues along rivers in the north east as well as the Yarra and Latrobe rivers in Victoria.

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