Markets

Daily Market Wire 31 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 31, 2024

US winter wheats firmed 2 percent amid firmness among most offshore markets.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up US12c/bu to 605.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 12.5c/bu to 630.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 6.5c/bu to 699.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 unchanged at €213.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up  8.25c/bu to 458.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 22.75c/bu to 1227.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$5.60/t to C$619.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1.75/t to €424.25/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$0.50/t to $369/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 9 points to US$0.6603

International

President Biden told reporters yesterday that he has made up his mind on how to respond to a drone attack that killed US service members in Jordan without giving any details, saying he has weighed up the appropriate US response without triggering a wider war. 

French and Belgian farmers have stepped up protests over rising costs, EU environmental policies and cheap food imports. Belgian farmers blocked access roads to a major container port on Tuesday as the protests spread across Europe ahead of the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday. French farmers have been protesting for over two weeks but are now blocking highways with their tractors near Paris and setting bales of hay on fire to partly block access to Toulouse Airport. Belgian farmers also blocked a square in central Brussels, saying they would not move until the EU summit. Spanish farmers have pledged to join the movement and organise protests in February.

Brazil’s Conab reported, as at 27 Jan, 2023-24 soybean planting was 99pc, with harvesting at 9pc, slightly ahead of last year’s pace (5pc). Harvest in Paraná was mainly concentrated in western areas of the state, while in Goiás it was mostly restricted to early sown fields, with yields said to be low reflecting the poor season. First season maize sowing 92pc complete (98pc previous year), with harvest 10pc complete (8pc). Good progress was noted in Rio Grande do Sul, especially in key growing regions, while fieldwork in Santa Catarina was slowed by rains, but with precipitation seen beneficial for crops. In Minas Gerais, crop development was said to be below last year. Second (safrinha) crop plantings are 10pc complete (4pc), led by good progress in Mato Grosso, where initial crop development was good. Fieldwork in Paraná was mainly centred around western parts of the state, with most crops in good condition. 

Brazil’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services reports that cumulative marketing year (Mar/Feb) maize exports, at 52.2Mt, are up 15pc year on year. Marketing year soybean exports (Feb/Jan) are at 103.7Mt, up 33pc. 

According to India’s Directorate of Wheat Research, due to recent cooler weather, 2023-24 wheat yields are expected to be slightly above average at 3.5t/ha, which would achieve the production target of 114Mt. 

Treaders in The Philippines reportedly purchased an unknown volume from Australia in their recent tender for 96,000t feed wheat, with prices said to be in the high $280s per tonne c&f, for Apr/May shipment. 

South Korean flour millers reportedly purchased 86kt of milling wheat from the US. The first consignment of 32,200 tonnes included 12.2kt of SW (9.5pc – 11pc) at US$244.03/t FOB, 11.5kt of HRW (11.5pc) at $273.45/t and 12.5kt of northern spring wheat (14pc) at $302.76/t. The second consignment included 23,810 tonnes of SW (9.5pc -11pc) at $242.82/t, 11.93kt of HRW (11.5pc) at $272.52/t and 14.27kt of northern spring wheat (14pc) at $304.37/t.

Australia

Local canola values followed the offshore movement again but gave up most of the gain earned over the last 2 weeks. Track values relaxed to A$600-610/t. Grower selling turned off, so the market was ill defined. Wheat values were also a touch softer but without any real drivers either way. Grower sales are picking up slightly as cash flow will be needed as they prep for the 2024-25 season. 

Southern Queensland has clocked some massive rainfall totals, with weekly rainfall up to Jan 30 between 50-150mm, which takes month-to-date to 100-200mm, with some isolated pockets seeing up to 300mm for Jan. Although the heavy falls earlier this week will likely have caused some localised damage the rainfall has been very beneficial for summer crops with yield prospects now significantly higher and a stark turnaround from prospects earlier in the season.

 

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