Russian forces reportedly downed two Ukrainian missiles in the southern region of Rostov on Friday and three Ukrainian drones were downed over Moscow early on Sunday, in a strike that briefly shut an international airport and damaged office buildings.

African leaders have pressed Putin to renew the Black Sea grain deal and move ahead with their peace plan to end the Ukraine war. “This war must end. And it can only end on the basis of justice and reason,” African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat told Putin and African leaders in St Petersburg. “The disruptions of energy and grain supplies must end immediately. The grain deal must be extended for the benefit of all the peoples of the world, Africans in particular.” However, Putin said rising world food prices were a consequence of Western policies that predated the war in Ukraine. He said Moscow respected the African peace proposal and was carefully studying it. 

According to SovEcon, Russia’s 2023 wheat harvest is now forecast at 87.1Mt, up from 86.8Mt, reflecting a larger pre-harvest area estimate and record-high starting yield in Rostov region. However, excessive rains lowered yield potential in Krasnodar “In recent weeks, rain has become a big problem for Russia’s southern regions. The harvest is lagging, and the quality has decreased. Overall, Russian wheat crop quality this year could be below average.” 

Romania plans to rapidly expand one of the key transit routes for grain from Ukraine, with new crossing points, increased staff at existing crossings and bringing in retired and military pilots to speed up the transit of ships through the Danube canals. Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu said “We are in close contact with Ukraine to identify the best options to increase and speed up this transit.”   

The European Commission cut its 2023-24 common wheat production forecast by 2.4Mt, to 126.4Mt (125.7m previous year), with ending stocks lowered by 3.1Mt, to 17.4Mt (19.9Mt). Barley production forecast cut by 0.9Mt, to 48.7Mt (51.5Mt previous year). Maize production forecast cut by 0.7Mt, to 63.0Mt (52.1Mt). Rapeseed production cut by 0.5Mt to 19.4Mt (19.5Mt previous year). Sunflowerseed production cut by 0.2Mt, to 10.6Mt (9.2Mt). 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 24 July, the 2023-24 common wheat crop conditions rated 78pc good/excellent (80pc previous week, 63pc previous year), durum at 67pc (67pc, 55pc), spring barley at 73pc (73pc, 48pc) and maize at 81pc (82pc, 75pc). Wheat harvest 83pc complete (75pc 5-year avg), winter barley at 100pc (98pc), spring barley at 91pc (65pc).

US private exporters reported sales of 325,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 171,460 tonnes to Mexico and 413,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. 

Australia

Local markets rounded out the week relatively steady given AGIC was on last week. The trade and growers will be looking to kick things off again this week. With international values remaining volatile, we still have a domestic consumptive back-end program to chip away at and exports continue to roll on for the August period. 

WA has another 5-15mm on the 8-day rainfall forecast, with the heavier totals again expected in the south. This will top up the rainfall received over the last week which saw 5-25mm mostly in the southeast. SA and western Vic can expect 5-15mm and eastern Vic has its weekly 15-25mm on the radar again. Southern and central NSW have 5-10mm on the forecast which falls back to below 5mm further north and northwest which extends over the border into southern Qld. The ongoing dry conditions in northern NSW are starting to take a toll, especially for crops west of the Newell.