Markets were mixed.
- Chicago wheat May contract down US1.75¢/bu to 569.5¢;
- Kansas wheat May contract unchanged at 486.75¢;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract down 2.25c to 534.75¢;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €1.50/t to €196.25/t;
- Corn May contract down 4.75c/bu to 341.25¢;
- Soybeans May contract up 0.75¢/bu to 882.25¢;
- Winnipeg canola May contract up $C4.60 to $467.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract up €4.25 to €360.75/t;
- Brent crude May contract down US$2.17 per barrel to $22.76;
- Dow Jones index up 691 points to 22327;
- AUD firmer at $0.6159:
- CAD weaker at $1.4197;
- EUR weaker at $1.1014
In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -1.75 usc/bu closing at 569.5usc/bu, Kansas was unchanged at 486.75usc/bu, while Minni softened -2.25 usc/bu to go out at 534.75usc/bu. Corn fell -4.75 usc/bu to go out at 341.25usc/bu while Beans were up 0.6 usc/bu to settle at 882.25usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 4.6 CAD/mt closing at 467.5CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 4.25 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 690.7 points.
It’s all about wheat. Commenting on markets without mentioning the c word is impossible – Covid-19 will be a feature in driving price direction for months and while we are largely dealing with the same production outlook it’s all about trade flows. Having said that, the USDA will have a crack at estimating the US quarterly stocks and planting intentions. From a stocks perspective the market is looking for a tightening bias vs the same time last year, although the analyst estimates are all over the map. Row crop and spring wheat planting intentions will be extremely interesting – corn is pegged by the trade at 94.328 m/acs vs the Outlook Forum (OF) guess of 94 flat and last year’s 89.70 m/ acs. Given how badly ethanol has been sold off due to the break in the energy space it will be interesting to see if these estimates are adjusted at all. Soybeans is seen at 84.865 m/acs vs the OF of 85m/ac and last year’s final planted area of 76.1m/acs. Once again – hard to read if the USDA will adjust these figures based on outright demand erosion.
Local old crop domestic markets remain firm through the East Coast and South Australia, with values in Geelong Melbourne up around $400/mt delivered for ASW1. While wheat in the north up onto the Downs is approx +$80/mt on top of that putting values in the $480/t range for SFW1. Barley also notching higher on the back of continued talk of Chinese buying demand. WA barley values have come off from the highs of $320/t FIS back to some volume trading yesterday at $310/t FIS. With AUD holding around the US0.60-61 level keeping new crop values unchanged. The forecast remains positive for the east coast for the next 8 days according to the BOM. With NSW expected to continue to get a top up as we lead into sowing.