Markets turned firmer overnight.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US13cents per bushel to 1027.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 20c/bu to 1044.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 15c/bu to 1058c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €5/t to €362.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract up $1/t to $345.50/t;
- Corn May contract up 11.75c/bu to 738c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract up 21c/bu to 1664c/bu;
- Soybean meal was up 2pc;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$1.30 /t to $961.30/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €9.75/t to €756.50/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$14/t to $387.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $2/t to $391/t;
- Brent crude was up 4pc;
- AUD dollar up to US$0.751.
When the Ukrainians themselves indicate that spring planting could be down by 50 per cent, it warrants risk premium. The latest focus in Ukraine is diesel and the lack of it. With Russia wanting to be paid in rubles, not USD, the energy market is far from working this out.
USDA’s US stocks and planting intentions is due out overnight, and its significance is high, especially with ongoing uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s spring planting. The feeling is the soybean supply is tight, and USDA will do little to shake the underlying balance sheet support. Corn could go from feast to famine, and forecasters are racing to the bottom on area, indicating the higher input cost will swing area to soybeans. Others point out the soybean/corn ratio should see corn hold its own. US planting moisture is looking good, so this will be about relative value and outlook, not rain.
Local wheat markets were softer on the public bids through current-crop markets, while trade activity and liquidity flow of grain still remains lacklustre due to nearby coverage levels and supply chain issues.
Trade markets were largely bid-side down to up-country domestic homes, and barley values were again relatively unchanged.
The bulk stem is steady with a 4.1 million tonnes (Mt) export for March and that is just shy of the Jan 4.2Mt national record, it won’t be the 5Mt number that was on the cards early in the month. So far April is stacking up at 3.7Mt
The weekly rainfall totals continue to climb, with Western Australia receiving fantastic rain in the past week, and most cropping areas getting 25-50 millimetres, with more on the way.
Growers have started planting early long-season crops, and planting pace is expected to ramp up over coming weeks.
Torrential rain continues along the east coast, and has caused further supply chain issues.
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