Lower for grains and oilseeds as improved US weather forecast alleviated concerns.
- CBOT wheat down -7.25c to 444c,
- Kansas wheat down -4c to 451.25c
- Corn down -6.75c to 375c,
- Soybean down -13.5c to 916c,
- Winnipeg canola down -3.899$C to 483$C,
- Matif canola down -1.25€ to 355.25€,
- Dow Jones down -50.80 to 21029.47,
- Crude Oil down -0.029c to 49.63c,
- AUD up to 0.746c,
- CAD up to 1.346c (AUDCAD 1.005)
- EUR up to 1.118c (AUDEUR 0.667).
Wheat suffered a similar fate to corn with a lower Commitment of Traders position and improved weather conditions. Harvest progress is increasing in Oklahoma and Texas, which is putting some sell-side pressure on things. Globally, we saw French crop ratings up 1pc week on week to 76pc good to excellent, while with no moisture in the 10 to 14-day forecast, dryness concerns in Ukraine build.
Corn fell over as the weather forecast improved. The reduced short COT position published after Friday’s close did nothing to paint a bullish picture. South American prices are on the decline as grower selling increases, which will help to ignite new selling pressure. Weekly export sales were above market expectations, and demand is ongoing, but the supply burden is too large at present to see any upside based on this alone.
Planting progress in soybeans showed a marked improvement over the weekend, which encouraged shorts to continue adding to their position. China is on holidays at the moment, which means demand news is very quiet; there are still rumours of cargoes being washed out and deferred due to an oversupply and lower crush demand.
Canola was under heavy pressure in all contracts due to fund selling. The front month contract (July) suffered the most, falling $9.40, and breaking the inverse by $7 in the last two sessions.
Nothing new from a weather point of view in Australia; the 8-day forecast remains dry, creating concerns for yield and acreage potential in WA, SA and parts of NSW. Cash markets should be lacklustre today, with lower futures and a higher dollar. Yesterday saw some end-of-month buying support in wheat and barley, but it is unlikely to be sustained today after the overnight performance.es.
Source: Lachstock Consulting