Daily market wire 31 Oct 2016

Lachstock Consulting, October 31, 2016

lackstock1It was a negative end to the week that saw wheat, corn and soybeans all lose ground.

Wheat markets appear to be on the ropes as they are fraught with quality concerns and a massive carryout while at the same time being supported by a rising global cash market.

Canola was the only shining light as both Winnipeg and Matif found strength.

CBOT Wheat was down -6c to 408.5c, Kansas wheat down -5.75c to 411.25c, corn down -3c to 363.25c, soybeans down -13c to 1001.25c, Winnipeg canola up $C4.9 to $C515.1, and Matif canola up €3.5 to €400.

The Dow Jones down -8.49 to 18161.19 , Crude Oil down -1.06c to 48.66c, AUD down to 0.7594c, CAD up to 1.3412c, (AUDCAD 1.0185) and the was EUR up to 1.0987c (AUDEUR 0.6911).

Latest COT had the Chicago increasing their spec short at 139.8k from 114.7k with the KC piece short just 6.6k down from 10.9k.

US wheat took a bit of a reality check when they lost some business to Argentina they were expecting to get into North Africa.

Only three weeks ago I couldn’t see a 12.5% FOB offer out of Argentina now I see it offered at USD 168/MT for December which appears to be attracting a lot of demand with Russian offered at USD 179 and Ukraine at 182. C

orn tried to rally but found it difficult in the face of a falling soybean market. Harvest weather looks wide open and the latest COT had the corn spec short into 62.8k from 68.7k.

China will give major processors in top growing provinces (Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjang) subsidies of 200 yuan ($29.50) per MT of corn to boost their consumption of the grain, according to government documents which was in line with market expectations.

This comes after China ended its stockpiling program, leaving farmers to rely on the market for the first time in nearly a decade.

Canola board crush margins continue their retreat on harvest delays in Alberta and Saskatchewan and a declining oil share. This harvest delay is an issue with some analysts pulling back their forecast 1-1.5MMT as a worst case scenario but most believe it will all pan out.

Crushing pace over there continues to impress reaching a weekly record up 8.5% carrying out a big book of forward oil sales into Asia committed earlier in the year. Canola in Australia found a bit of strength with Graincorp stepping up to around 550 track Kemb/Melb which attracted a few farmers with harvest not that far away.

Getting some results of poor quality malt barley in NSW and more mould issues in Chickpeas.


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