Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 4, 2021

Soybeans fell 2 1/2pc and while corn and wheat could not avoid the follow on, spring wheat continued to firm.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US5c/bu to 724.5c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 4c/bu to 707.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 3c/bu to 919.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25/t to €228.25/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 8.25c/bu to 550.5c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 32.5c/bu to 1323.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$12.90 to $855.10;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.75/t to €528/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 92.0;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.740;
  • CAD weaker at $1.254;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.187;
  • ASX wheat September contract up $4/t to A$328/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $4/t to $328/t.

International

Corn Belt weather maps show a storm system building across the northern Corn Belt forecasting more than an inch across much of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin with slightly less into northern Illinois. Temperature outlook is still skewing slightly warmer relative to earlier runs.

There is more talk about some extended run improvements in weather outlooks for parts of the northern Plains and southern Canada but so far nothing substantial. At this point crops are largely beyond redemption, though it would help next year’s potential.

Following this week’s GASC tender Egypt’s president is calling for an increase in bread prices. Subsidized bread prices can be a precarious issue in the region, with concerns about political stability there increasing after the announcement.  The last large protests were sparked in no small part by the price of bread at the time.

AgRural consultancy in Brazil pegged the safrinha crop production at 56.2 million tonnes (Mt), down another 3Mt from their last estimate.  Overall corn production-loss estimates this season are about a third, roughly equivalent to the entire production of Ukraine.

Crop estimates in Ukraine are starting to trim back slightly. A few private forecasters took their estimates down into the high 30s Mt range versus near 40Mt prior, based on late heat impact on yield.

Vietnam will buy rice into government stockpiles in a bid to balance food security concerns following a spike in COVID cases in recent months in the ASEAN region.

Global markets seem to be chasing a new story. Amid currently mixed weather for the US few are willing to adopt strong row crop yield ideas, given also that the next WASDE report is more than a week away. Markets are looking for the next large directional story to either feed the bulls or encourage the bears to sell into row crop harvest.  Cash demand has been supporting global wheat in recent weeks, but it poses the question of how much more demand needs to be filled as EU and Black Sea region values firm.

Australia

Rises in local markets lagged the global moves yesterday. Wheat bids were up $3-4/t or so new crop, but old crop parcels continued to attract some stronger bids as demand side interest aims to finish filling boats and meet domestic needs.

Some areas of the east coast are starting to see production ideas capped/trimmed slightly with the wet conditions as worries about water-logged crops emerge.

Forecasts are still looking good for WA on this next rain event and there’s a chance of more moisture for southeastern Australia.

 

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