Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 4, 2023

Wheat and corn firmed again. The oilseeds and Brent crude eased. The Dow continued to rally. The Australian dollar gained 1 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 4.75c/bu to US602.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 3.75c/bu to 646.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 0.75c/bu to 730.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €2.50/t to €228.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 up 2c/bu to 484.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 14.75c/bu to 1360.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$15.20/t to C$696.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €7.25/t to €445/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$5/t to $398/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley up A$2.50/t to $325/t;
  • AUD dollar up 70 points to  US$0.6675.

International

Dry areas of central and northern Brazil are forecast to receive needed rains during the next two weeks. That will provide temporary relief from extended dryness, though more rains will be needed to sustain crop development.

Mostly favourable weather is also expected across Argentina’s core growing areas where Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 29 November, Argentina’s 2023-24 maize planting was 32pc complete (25pc previous year). Crop condition was rated 98pc fair/excellent (96pc previous week, 75pc previous year). Recent rains delayed fieldwork in some areas but were termed beneficial for crop development. Soybean sowing was 44pc complete (29pc). Ongoing precipitation is seen beneficial for fields planted outside of the optimal sowing window, including in the northern producing areas. Wheat harvest was 36pc complete, with rising average yields, estimated at 2.2t/ha (1.8t/ha previous week), pointing to potential upside for production estimates. Barley harvest now underway, pegged at 6pc complete (4pc previous year). 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 27 Nov, French 2024-25 common wheat planting was 83pc complete (99pc previous year), durum at 44pc (88pc) and winter barley at 92pc (100pc). Common wheat crop rated 80pc good/excellent (83pc previous week, 98pc previous year) and winter barley at 80pc (85pc, 97pc). France has experienced record rainfall between mid-October and mid-November and the weather has continued to remain wet since. Some large grain producing regions have recorded showers nearly every day. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 60,000t feed barley from optional origins, at US$243.50/t c&f, Feb shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 132,000t soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023-24 marketing year and 198,000t to unknown destinations.

Australia

Wheat markets were mostly sideways as we finished the week. The concerns about the impact of the recent rainfall on quality were showing, with APW1 grade or better finding some strength but ASW and below feeling some pressure through Vic. 

Rainfall totals for the week ending 3 December were high through southeast NSW and eastern Vic, with some areas receiving between 50-150mm. The next 4 days are forecast to be relatively dry but there is more rainfall on the forecast starting on Friday, with 10-25mm for most of SA and western Vic and 25-50mm for eastern Vic. These successive rainfall events will cause more headaches.

 

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