Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 January 2022

Lachstock Consulting, January 4, 2022

Wheat market settled more than 1pc lower. Soybeans firmed. European rapeseed firmed more than 2pc and the Winnipeg market was shut.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US12.75 cents per bushel to 758c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 10c/bu to 791.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March down 14.25c/bu to 967.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €4.50/t to €274;
  • Corn March contract down 4c/bu to 589.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract up 16.25c/bu to 1355.5c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola market was closed;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €17.25/t to €771.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2022 wheat contract on 31 Dec 2021 settled up A$5/t to $360/t.
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract on 31 Dec 2021 settled up A$9.80/t to $377.30/t.

International

The bid is being kept under in South America due to hot and dry weather. US wheat is working though some winterkill issues.

Russia’s wheat export tax will hit a record US$98.20/t as of 12 January 2022, up from $94.90/t. The Russian government approved a grain export quota of 11 million tonnes (Mt) between 15 February and 30 June 2022, including 8Mt wheat.

COVID hit the headlines again in the US with new record levels of infections. According to Johns Hopkins University data the average daily cases have been above 400,000 in the past week, about 60pc higher than the previous US peak in January 2021. The true numbers are suspected to be higher due to the numbers of tests reported by states still running below their 2021 highs.

Australia

Markets today will kick off after the New Year long weekend. With most markets relatively quiet over the Christmas/New Year break will we see some spark step back in? We shall see where things line up on the bid and offer side throughout the day.

Updated shipping lineups have 0.7Mt canola still on the stem for January after shipping 0.34Mt in December. WA is looking to ship 0.5Mt again in January, challenging the previous record month set back in November. Canola is starting to flow onto the stem for Vic and NSW now too. Jan is not set up as a big one yet, 0.788Mt on stem so far.

For wheat shipments we need to start seeing some 1Mt months in WA if we are going to reach our export numbers. The production is there but the bottleneck is now elevation capacity in WA.

Biofuel use could get boost from a new Australian fuel standard, commencing 1 January 2022, reducing the gasoline pool maximum aromatics content from 42pc to 35pc. If enforced, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service said this could prompt a significant increase in ethanol use.

Weather creating some more havoc for the western Victorian harvest where wheat is in full swing now with rain forecast upwards of 25-50mm for the region over the next 4-8 days.

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